Premier League·Regular Season - 5·
Premier League·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jarred Gillett · Australia
Goals
48%
27%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.440.962.40safe0.48–2.400.10–1.820.57–4.22safer0.22–2.660.00–2.060.07–4.73actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.603.017.61safe2.74–6.451.30–4.714.04–11.17safer2.24–6.950.83–5.183.08–12.14actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8210.2424.06safe10.12–17.536.86–13.6216.98–31.14safer9.09–18.565.93–14.5515.02–33.10actual24.0010.0034.00
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.816.7616.58safe7.30–12.334.46–9.0711.76–21.39safer6.43–13.193.67–9.8610.10–23.05actual12.005.0017.00
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.183.037.21safe2.60–5.771.62–4.454.21–10.21safer2.06–6.301.13–4.933.19–11.23actual12.001.0013.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.544.149.68safe3.34–7.752.16–6.125.50–13.86safer2.74–8.341.62–6.654.36–15.00actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.3148.97safe45.00–57.6342.65–55.29safer43.40–59.2341.05–56.89actual63.0037.00
Passes
56%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction427407834safe361–492343–472704–964safer344–510325–489669–999actual506308814
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction66.9766.78safe62.76–71.1962.27–71.29safer61.46–72.4960.94–72.62
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6210.8722.49safe8.76–14.477.93–13.8216.69–28.29safer7.87–15.367.01–14.7414.88–30.10actual12.0010.0022.00
Offsides
56%
20%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.423.67safe1.03–3.450.26–2.591.29–6.04safer0.69–3.790.00–2.920.62–6.71actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
34%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.123.93safe0.75–2.871.00–3.241.76–6.11safer0.48–3.140.71–3.531.20–6.67actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
92%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.050.09safe0.00–0.190.00–0.240.00–0.43safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.73actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.252.744.99safe0.83–3.661.19–4.292.02–7.96safer0.45–4.050.75–4.731.20–8.78actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.40 0.22–2.66 | 0.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.06 | 1.00 | 2.40 0.57–4.22 0.07–4.73 | 1.00 | 48% 27% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.74–6.45 2.24–6.95 | 3.00 | 3.01 1.30–4.71 0.83–5.18 | 3.00 | 7.61 4.04–11.17 3.08–12.14 | 6.00 | 65% 22% |
| Total shots | 13.82 10.12–17.53 9.09–18.56 | 24.00 | 10.24 6.86–13.62 5.93–14.55 | 10.00 | 24.06 16.98–31.14 15.02–33.10 | 34.00 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.81 7.30–12.33 6.43–13.19 | 12.00 | 6.76 4.46–9.07 3.67–9.86 | 5.00 | 16.58 11.76–21.39 10.10–23.05 | 17.00 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.18 2.60–5.77 2.06–6.30 | 12.00 | 3.03 1.62–4.45 1.13–4.93 | 1.00 | 7.21 4.21–10.21 3.19–11.23 | 13.00 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.34–7.75 2.74–8.34 | 6.00 | 4.14 2.16–6.12 1.62–6.65 | 2.00 | 9.68 5.50–13.86 4.36–15.00 | 8.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 51.31 45.00–57.63 43.40–59.23 | 63.00 | 48.97 42.65–55.29 41.05–56.89 | 37.00 | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 427 361–492 344–510 | 506 | 407 343–472 325–489 | 308 | 834 704–964 669–999 | 814 | 56% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.97 62.76–71.19 61.46–72.49 | — | 66.78 62.27–71.29 60.94–72.62 | — | — | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 11.62 8.76–14.47 7.87–15.36 | 12.00 | 10.87 7.93–13.82 7.01–14.74 | 10.00 | 22.49 16.69–28.29 14.88–30.10 | 22.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.24 1.03–3.45 0.69–3.79 | 2.00 | 1.42 0.26–2.59 0.00–2.92 | 2.00 | 3.67 1.29–6.04 0.62–6.71 | 4.00 | 56% 20% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.75–2.87 0.48–3.14 | 2.00 | 2.12 1.00–3.24 0.71–3.53 | 0.00 | 3.93 1.76–6.11 1.20–6.67 | 2.00 | 34% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.43 0.00–0.73 | 0.00 | 92% |
| GK saves | 2.25 0.83–3.66 0.45–4.05 | 2.00 | 2.74 1.19–4.29 0.75–4.73 | 2.00 | 4.99 2.02–7.96 1.20–8.78 | 4.00 | 33% 18% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.