Premier League·Regular Season - 38·
Premier League·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.312.64safe0.36–2.300.46–2.170.82–4.46safer0.11–2.550.23–2.390.34–4.94
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.204.508.70safe2.34–6.062.76–6.245.10–12.31safer1.85–6.552.29–6.714.14–13.26
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2412.8726.11safe9.32–17.179.30–16.4318.62–33.60safer8.23–18.268.35–17.3916.57–35.65
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction8.359.4517.80safe5.41–11.296.77–12.1312.18–23.43safer4.58–12.126.03–12.8710.61–24.99
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.593.687.27safe1.70–5.472.03–5.333.73–10.80safer1.16–6.011.53–5.822.70–11.84
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.315.0310.34safe3.09–7.523.03–7.036.12–14.55safer2.52–8.092.50–7.565.02–15.66
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.3950.62safe43.60–57.1843.84–57.41safer41.93–58.8542.17–59.08
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction438422860safe371–505356–489727–994safer353–524338–506691–1030
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction68.0470.05safe64.01–72.0665.73–74.38safer62.71–73.3664.42–75.69
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0012.3623.36safe8.17–13.849.41–15.3017.58–29.14safer7.41–14.608.66–16.0516.07–30.65
Offsides
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.464.14safe0.52–2.841.37–3.561.89–6.40safer0.22–3.141.08–3.851.30–6.99
Yellow cards
30%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.903.39safe0.44–2.540.77–3.031.21–5.56safer0.17–2.800.48–3.320.65–6.12
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.875.89safe1.59–4.461.32–4.432.90–8.89safer1.20–4.840.89–4.852.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.31 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.39 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.20 2.34–6.06 1.85–6.55 | 4.50 2.76–6.24 2.29–6.71 | 8.70 5.10–12.31 4.14–13.26 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.24 9.32–17.17 8.23–18.26 | 12.87 9.30–16.43 8.35–17.39 | 26.11 18.62–33.60 16.57–35.65 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.35 5.41–11.29 4.58–12.12 | 9.45 6.77–12.13 6.03–12.87 | 17.80 12.18–23.43 10.61–24.99 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.59 1.70–5.47 1.16–6.01 | 3.68 2.03–5.33 1.53–5.82 | 7.27 3.73–10.80 2.70–11.84 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.09–7.52 2.52–8.09 | 5.03 3.03–7.03 2.50–7.56 | 10.34 6.12–14.55 5.02–15.66 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 50.39 43.60–57.18 41.93–58.85 | 50.62 43.84–57.41 42.17–59.08 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 438 371–505 353–524 | 422 356–489 338–506 | 860 727–994 691–1030 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.04 64.01–72.06 62.71–73.36 | 70.05 65.73–74.38 64.42–75.69 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 11.00 8.17–13.84 7.41–14.60 | 12.36 9.41–15.30 8.66–16.05 | 23.36 17.58–29.14 16.07–30.65 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.22–3.14 | 2.46 1.37–3.56 1.08–3.85 | 4.14 1.89–6.40 1.30–6.99 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.17–2.80 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.39 1.21–5.56 0.65–6.12 | 30% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.84 | 2.87 1.32–4.43 0.89–4.85 | 5.89 2.90–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.