Premier League·Regular Season - 5·
Premier League·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Samuel Barrott · England
Goals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.192.76safe0.60–2.530.33–2.050.94–4.58safer0.34–2.790.09–2.300.43–5.09actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.033.858.89safe3.18–6.892.15–5.565.32–12.45safer2.68–7.391.68–6.034.36–13.42actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0411.4625.50safe10.33–17.748.09–14.8418.42–32.58safer9.30–18.777.16–15.7716.46–34.55actual20.0015.0035.00
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.317.8218.12safe7.79–12.825.51–10.1213.31–22.94safer6.93–13.694.72–10.9111.64–24.60actual12.009.0021.00
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.146.99safe2.27–5.441.72–4.553.99–9.99safer1.74–5.971.24–5.042.97–11.01actual4.003.007.00
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.444.349.78safe3.24–7.652.36–6.325.60–13.97safer2.64–8.241.83–6.864.47–15.10actual11.001.0012.00
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction56.6843.69safe50.36–63.0037.37–50.01safer48.77–64.5935.77–51.60actual64.0036.00
Passes
75%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction473392864safe407–538327–456735–994safer390–556310–474699–1030actual571331902
Pass accuracy %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction79.2470.76safe75.02–83.4566.25–75.27safer73.72–84.7564.92–76.60
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4512.4524.90safe9.60–15.319.50–15.3919.10–30.71safer8.71–16.208.59–16.3117.30–32.51actual9.0013.0022.00
Offsides
68%
15%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction3.051.544.59safe1.84–4.260.38–2.712.22–6.96safer1.49–4.600.05–3.041.54–7.64actual5.002.007.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.474.55safe1.02–3.131.35–3.592.37–6.72safer0.75–3.401.06–3.881.81–7.28actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.335.86safe1.12–3.951.77–4.882.89–8.83safer0.73–4.341.34–5.312.07–9.65actual3.005.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.53 0.34–2.79 | 2.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.09–2.30 | 3.00 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.43–5.09 | 5.00 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.03 3.18–6.89 2.68–7.39 | 7.00 | 3.85 2.15–5.56 1.68–6.03 | 6.00 | 8.89 5.32–12.45 4.36–13.42 | 13.00 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.04 10.33–17.74 9.30–18.77 | 20.00 | 11.46 8.09–14.84 7.16–15.77 | 15.00 | 25.50 18.42–32.58 16.46–34.55 | 35.00 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 10.31 7.79–12.82 6.93–13.69 | 12.00 | 7.82 5.51–10.12 4.72–10.91 | 9.00 | 18.12 13.31–22.94 11.64–24.60 | 21.00 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 2.27–5.44 1.74–5.97 | 4.00 | 3.14 1.72–4.55 1.24–5.04 | 3.00 | 6.99 3.99–9.99 2.97–11.01 | 7.00 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.44 3.24–7.65 2.64–8.24 | 11.00 | 4.34 2.36–6.32 1.83–6.86 | 1.00 | 9.78 5.60–13.97 4.47–15.10 | 12.00 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 56.68 50.36–63.00 48.77–64.59 | 64.00 | 43.69 37.37–50.01 35.77–51.60 | 36.00 | — | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 473 407–538 390–556 | 571 | 392 327–456 310–474 | 331 | 864 735–994 699–1030 | 902 | 75% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.24 75.02–83.45 73.72–84.75 | — | 70.76 66.25–75.27 64.92–76.60 | — | — | — | 84% 13% |
| Fouls | 12.45 9.60–15.31 8.71–16.20 | 9.00 | 12.45 9.50–15.39 8.59–16.31 | 13.00 | 24.90 19.10–30.71 17.30–32.51 | 22.00 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 3.05 1.84–4.26 1.49–4.60 | 5.00 | 1.54 0.38–2.71 0.05–3.04 | 2.00 | 4.59 2.22–6.96 1.54–7.64 | 7.00 | 68% 15% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.02–3.13 0.75–3.40 | 1.00 | 2.47 1.35–3.59 1.06–3.88 | 2.00 | 4.55 2.37–6.72 1.81–7.28 | 3.00 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.12–3.95 0.73–4.34 | 3.00 | 3.33 1.77–4.88 1.34–5.31 | 5.00 | 5.86 2.89–8.83 2.07–9.65 | 8.00 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+