Premier League·Regular Season - 38·
Premier League·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.323.12safe0.84–2.770.46–2.171.30–4.94safer0.58–3.020.23–2.400.82–5.42
Shots on target
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.889.94safe3.20–6.933.13–6.626.34–13.55safer2.71–7.422.67–7.085.38–14.50
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3113.7628.07safe10.38–18.2310.20–17.3320.59–35.56safer9.29–19.329.24–18.2918.53–37.61
Shots in box
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction9.869.4519.32safe6.92–12.816.77–12.1413.70–24.94safer6.09–13.646.04–12.8712.13–26.51
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.103.197.29safe2.22–5.981.53–4.843.75–10.82safer1.67–6.521.04–5.332.71–11.86
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.9910.25safe3.05–7.482.99–6.996.04–14.46safer2.47–8.052.45–7.524.93–15.57
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.6650.43safe42.87–56.4543.65–57.21safer41.20–58.1241.97–58.89
Passes
46%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction459470929safe392–526404–537795–1063safer374–544386–554760–1098
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction73.1678.76safe69.13–77.1974.43–83.08safer67.84–78.4873.12–84.39
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1412.5624.70safe9.30–14.989.62–15.5118.92–30.48safer8.55–15.738.87–16.2517.41–31.99
Offsides
21%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.984.77safe0.62–2.941.89–4.082.51–7.02safer0.32–3.241.60–4.371.92–7.61
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.203.93safe0.68–2.781.07–3.331.76–6.11safer0.42–3.050.78–3.621.20–6.67
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
41%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.166.30safe1.70–4.571.61–4.723.30–9.29safer1.31–4.961.18–5.142.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.77 0.58–3.02 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.40 | 3.12 1.30–4.94 0.82–5.42 | 49% 23% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.20–6.93 2.71–7.42 | 4.88 3.13–6.62 2.67–7.08 | 9.94 6.34–13.55 5.38–14.50 | 46% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.31 10.38–18.23 9.29–19.32 | 13.76 10.20–17.33 9.24–18.29 | 28.07 20.59–35.56 18.53–37.61 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 9.86 6.92–12.81 6.09–13.64 | 9.45 6.77–12.14 6.04–12.87 | 19.32 13.70–24.94 12.13–26.51 | 49% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 4.10 2.22–5.98 1.67–6.52 | 3.19 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 7.29 3.75–10.82 2.71–11.86 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.05–7.48 2.47–8.05 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.45–7.52 | 10.25 6.04–14.46 4.93–15.57 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 49.66 42.87–56.45 41.20–58.12 | 50.43 43.65–57.21 41.97–58.89 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 459 392–526 374–544 | 470 404–537 386–554 | 929 795–1063 760–1098 | 46% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.16 69.13–77.19 67.84–78.48 | 78.76 74.43–83.08 73.12–84.39 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.14 9.30–14.98 8.55–15.73 | 12.56 9.62–15.51 8.87–16.25 | 24.70 18.92–30.48 17.41–31.99 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 2.98 1.89–4.08 1.60–4.37 | 4.77 2.51–7.02 1.92–7.61 | 21% 16% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.78 0.42–3.05 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 3.93 1.76–6.11 1.20–6.67 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 3.16 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.30 3.30–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 41% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.