Premier League·Regular Season - 6·
Premier League·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.232.85safe0.65–2.590.37–2.081.03–4.67safer0.40–2.840.14–2.310.55–5.15
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.309.53safe3.37–7.102.55–6.045.93–13.14safer2.88–7.592.09–6.514.97–14.09
Total shots
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8511.6226.46safe10.92–18.778.05–15.1818.98–33.95safer9.83–19.867.09–16.1416.92–36.00
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.828.4818.30safe6.88–12.765.80–11.1712.68–23.93safer6.05–13.595.07–11.9011.11–25.49
Blocked shots
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.312.877.18safe2.43–6.201.22–4.523.65–10.72safer1.89–6.740.72–5.022.61–11.75
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.054.4710.52safe3.84–8.262.47–6.476.31–14.74safer3.26–8.841.94–7.015.20–15.84
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.3144.40safe48.52–62.1037.62–51.19safer46.85–63.7735.95–52.86
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction481378859safe414–548311–444725–993safer396–567294–462690–1028
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction71.2269.09safe67.19–75.2564.76–73.41safer65.90–76.5463.45–74.72
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2912.7323.02safe7.45–13.129.79–15.6817.24–28.80safer6.69–13.889.04–16.4215.73–30.31
Offsides
21%
16%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.803.024.82safe0.64–2.961.93–4.122.57–7.07safer0.34–3.261.64–4.401.98–7.66
Yellow cards
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.444.04safe0.55–2.651.31–3.571.87–6.22safer0.29–2.921.02–3.861.31–6.78
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.526.24safe1.29–4.161.96–5.073.25–9.24safer0.90–4.551.54–5.502.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.65–2.59 0.40–2.84 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.23 3.37–7.10 2.88–7.59 | 4.30 2.55–6.04 2.09–6.51 | 9.53 5.93–13.14 4.97–14.09 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.85 10.92–18.77 9.83–19.86 | 11.62 8.05–15.18 7.09–16.14 | 26.46 18.98–33.95 16.92–36.00 | 70% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.82 6.88–12.76 6.05–13.59 | 8.48 5.80–11.17 5.07–11.90 | 18.30 12.68–23.93 11.11–25.49 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 2.43–6.20 1.89–6.74 | 2.87 1.22–4.52 0.72–5.02 | 7.18 3.65–10.72 2.61–11.75 | 64% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 6.05 3.84–8.26 3.26–8.84 | 4.47 2.47–6.47 1.94–7.01 | 10.52 6.31–14.74 5.20–15.84 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 55.31 48.52–62.10 46.85–63.77 | 44.40 37.62–51.19 35.95–52.86 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 481 414–548 396–567 | 378 311–444 294–462 | 859 725–993 690–1028 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.22 67.19–75.25 65.90–76.54 | 69.09 64.76–73.41 63.45–74.72 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 10.29 7.45–13.12 6.69–13.88 | 12.73 9.79–15.68 9.04–16.42 | 23.02 17.24–28.80 15.73–30.31 | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 3.02 1.93–4.12 1.64–4.40 | 4.82 2.57–7.07 1.98–7.66 | 21% 16% 63% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.65 0.29–2.92 | 2.44 1.31–3.57 1.02–3.86 | 4.04 1.87–6.22 1.31–6.78 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 3.52 1.96–5.07 1.54–5.50 | 6.24 3.25–9.24 2.44–10.05 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.