Premier League·Regular Season - 35·
Premier League·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.392.75safe0.39–2.330.54–2.250.93–4.57safer0.14–2.580.31–2.470.45–5.05
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.368.80safe2.58–6.302.62–6.105.19–12.40safer2.09–6.792.15–6.574.24–13.36
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4213.2426.66safe9.50–17.359.68–16.8119.18–34.15safer8.40–18.448.72–17.7617.13–36.20
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.958.3917.34safe6.01–11.905.71–11.0711.72–22.97safer5.18–12.724.97–11.8110.15–24.53
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.817.35safe1.66–5.422.16–5.463.81–10.88safer1.11–5.961.67–5.962.78–11.92
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.165.1010.26safe2.94–7.373.10–7.106.05–14.48safer2.37–7.942.57–7.644.94–15.58
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction47.4753.25safe40.67–54.2646.46–60.03safer39.01–55.9344.79–61.70
Passes
33%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction414465879safe346–481399–532745–1013safer328–499381–549710–1048
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction67.0973.19safe63.06–71.1268.86–77.51safer61.76–72.4167.56–78.82
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3910.6623.04safe9.55–15.237.71–13.6017.26–28.83safer8.80–15.986.96–14.3515.76–30.33
Offsides
56%
18%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.791.934.72safe1.63–3.950.84–3.032.47–6.98safer1.33–4.250.55–3.321.88–7.57
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.793.59safe0.75–2.850.66–2.921.41–5.77safer0.48–3.120.37–3.210.86–6.33
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.913.065.97safe1.47–4.341.50–4.622.97–8.96safer1.08–4.731.08–5.042.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.33 0.14–2.58 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.47 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.30 2.09–6.79 | 4.36 2.62–6.10 2.15–6.57 | 8.80 5.19–12.40 4.24–13.36 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.42 9.50–17.35 8.40–18.44 | 13.24 9.68–16.81 8.72–17.76 | 26.66 19.18–34.15 17.13–36.20 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 8.95 6.01–11.90 5.18–12.72 | 8.39 5.71–11.07 4.97–11.81 | 17.34 11.72–22.97 10.15–24.53 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.42 1.11–5.96 | 3.81 2.16–5.46 1.67–5.96 | 7.35 3.81–10.88 2.78–11.92 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.94–7.37 2.37–7.94 | 5.10 3.10–7.10 2.57–7.64 | 10.26 6.05–14.48 4.94–15.58 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 47.47 40.67–54.26 39.01–55.93 | 53.25 46.46–60.03 44.79–61.70 | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 414 346–481 328–499 | 465 399–532 381–549 | 879 745–1013 710–1048 | 33% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.09 63.06–71.12 61.76–72.41 | 73.19 68.86–77.51 67.56–78.82 | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.39 9.55–15.23 8.80–15.98 | 10.66 7.71–13.60 6.96–14.35 | 23.04 17.26–28.83 15.76–30.33 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 2.79 1.63–3.95 1.33–4.25 | 1.93 0.84–3.03 0.55–3.32 | 4.72 2.47–6.98 1.88–7.57 | 56% 18% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.12 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.59 1.41–5.77 0.86–6.33 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 3.06 1.50–4.62 1.08–5.04 | 5.97 2.97–8.96 2.16–9.77 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.