Premier League·Regular Season - 6·
Premier League·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.062.68safe0.66–2.590.20–1.910.86–4.51safer0.41–2.850.00–2.140.38–4.99
Shots on target
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.874.209.06safe3.00–6.732.45–5.945.46–12.67safer2.51–7.221.99–6.404.50–13.62
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5512.5226.06safe9.62–17.478.95–16.0818.58–33.55safer8.53–18.567.99–17.0416.53–35.60
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.957.9216.87safe6.01–11.905.23–10.6011.25–22.49safer5.18–12.734.50–11.339.68–24.06
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.327.30safe2.09–5.861.67–4.973.76–10.83safer1.55–6.401.18–5.472.73–11.87
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.934.5010.43safe3.71–8.142.50–6.506.21–14.64safer3.14–8.721.96–7.035.11–15.75
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.9845.34safe48.19–61.7738.55–52.12safer46.52–63.4436.88–53.79
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction499396895safe432–567329–462762–1029safer414–585312–480726–1065
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction71.5571.63safe67.52–75.5867.30–75.95safer66.22–76.8765.99–77.26
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1512.7123.86safe8.31–13.999.77–15.6618.08–29.65safer7.56–14.749.02–16.4116.58–31.15
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.653.29safe0.48–2.800.56–2.751.04–5.55safer0.18–3.100.27–3.030.45–6.14
Yellow cards
32%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.614.74safe1.08–3.181.48–3.742.56–6.92safer0.82–3.451.19–4.032.01–7.48
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.095.98safe1.45–4.321.54–4.652.99–8.97safer1.06–4.711.11–5.072.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 0.66–2.59 0.41–2.85 | 1.06 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.68 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 51% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.00–6.73 2.51–7.22 | 4.20 2.45–5.94 1.99–6.40 | 9.06 5.46–12.67 4.50–13.62 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.55 9.62–17.47 8.53–18.56 | 12.52 8.95–16.08 7.99–17.04 | 26.06 18.58–33.55 16.53–35.60 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.95 6.01–11.90 5.18–12.73 | 7.92 5.23–10.60 4.50–11.33 | 16.87 11.25–22.49 9.68–24.06 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.09–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 3.32 1.67–4.97 1.18–5.47 | 7.30 3.76–10.83 2.73–11.87 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.93 3.71–8.14 3.14–8.72 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.96–7.03 | 10.43 6.21–14.64 5.11–15.75 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 54.98 48.19–61.77 46.52–63.44 | 45.34 38.55–52.12 36.88–53.79 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 499 432–567 414–585 | 396 329–462 312–480 | 895 762–1029 726–1065 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.55 67.52–75.58 66.22–76.87 | 71.63 67.30–75.95 65.99–77.26 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 11.15 8.31–13.99 7.56–14.74 | 12.71 9.77–15.66 9.02–16.41 | 23.86 18.08–29.65 16.58–31.15 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.65 0.56–2.75 0.27–3.03 | 3.29 1.04–5.55 0.45–6.14 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.08–3.18 0.82–3.45 | 2.61 1.48–3.74 1.19–4.03 | 4.74 2.56–6.92 2.01–7.48 | 32% 18% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 3.09 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.07 | 5.98 2.99–8.97 2.17–9.78 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.