Premier League·Regular Season - 37·
Premier League·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.392.76safe0.40–2.330.54–2.250.94–4.58safer0.15–2.590.31–2.470.46–5.06
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.388.92safe2.68–6.412.64–6.125.32–12.53safer2.19–6.892.17–6.594.36–13.48
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0912.0026.09safe10.16–18.018.44–15.5718.60–33.58safer9.07–19.107.48–16.5316.55–35.63
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.217.8917.11safe6.27–12.165.21–10.5711.48–22.73safer5.44–12.994.47–11.319.92–24.30
Blocked shots
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.828.04safe2.34–6.102.16–5.474.50–11.57safer1.80–6.651.67–5.963.47–12.61
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.8510.28safe3.21–7.642.85–6.856.06–14.49safer2.64–8.212.32–7.394.96–15.60
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction47.5552.81safe40.76–54.3446.03–59.60safer39.09–56.0144.36–61.27
Passes
31%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction430488918safe363–498421–554785–1052safer345–516404–572749–1088
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction68.9273.25safe64.89–72.9568.92–77.57safer63.60–74.2467.61–78.88
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5511.3422.88safe8.71–14.398.39–14.2817.10–28.67safer7.95–15.147.64–15.0315.60–30.17
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.563.26safe0.55–2.870.46–2.651.01–5.52safer0.25–3.170.17–2.940.42–6.11
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.234.16safe0.88–2.981.10–3.361.98–6.34safer0.61–3.240.81–3.651.42–6.89
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.090.22safe0.00–0.290.00–0.270.00–0.57safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.85
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.245.97safe1.29–4.161.68–4.802.97–8.96safer0.90–4.551.26–5.222.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.33 0.15–2.59 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.47 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 37% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.41 2.19–6.89 | 4.38 2.64–6.12 2.17–6.59 | 8.92 5.32–12.53 4.36–13.48 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.09 10.16–18.01 9.07–19.10 | 12.00 8.44–15.57 7.48–16.53 | 26.09 18.60–33.58 16.55–35.63 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.21 6.27–12.16 5.44–12.99 | 7.89 5.21–10.57 4.47–11.31 | 17.11 11.48–22.73 9.92–24.30 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.34–6.10 1.80–6.65 | 3.82 2.16–5.47 1.67–5.96 | 8.04 4.50–11.57 3.47–12.61 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.21 | 4.85 2.85–6.85 2.32–7.39 | 10.28 6.06–14.49 4.96–15.60 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 47.55 40.76–54.34 39.09–56.01 | 52.81 46.03–59.60 44.36–61.27 | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 430 363–498 345–516 | 488 421–554 404–572 | 918 785–1052 749–1088 | 31% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.92 64.89–72.95 63.60–74.24 | 73.25 68.92–77.57 67.61–78.88 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.71–14.39 7.95–15.14 | 11.34 8.39–14.28 7.64–15.03 | 22.88 17.10–28.67 15.60–30.17 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.56 0.46–2.65 0.17–2.94 | 3.26 1.01–5.52 0.42–6.11 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.61–3.24 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 4.16 1.98–6.34 1.42–6.89 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 3.24 1.68–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 5.97 2.97–8.96 2.16–9.77 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.