Premier League·Regular Season - 6·
Premier League·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.182.56safe0.41–2.350.33–2.030.73–4.38safer0.16–2.600.10–2.260.25–4.86
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.494.338.82safe2.62–6.352.59–6.085.21–12.42safer2.13–6.842.12–6.544.26–13.38
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6712.7526.43safe9.75–17.609.19–16.3218.94–33.92safer8.66–18.698.23–17.2816.89–35.97
Shots in box
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction8.319.1217.42safe5.36–11.256.44–11.8011.80–23.05safer4.53–12.085.70–12.5410.23–24.61
Blocked shots
37%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.927.42safe1.61–5.382.27–5.573.88–10.95safer1.07–5.921.77–6.072.85–11.99
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.554.6310.18safe3.33–7.762.63–6.635.96–14.39safer2.76–8.332.10–7.164.86–15.50
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.8148.23safe45.02–58.6041.45–55.02safer43.35–60.2739.77–56.69
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction460427886safe392–527360–493753–1020safer374–545343–511717–1056
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction66.5969.34safe62.56–70.6265.01–73.66safer61.26–71.9163.70–74.97
Fouls
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6111.6222.23safe7.77–13.458.67–14.5616.44–28.01safer7.02–14.207.92–15.3114.94–29.51
Offsides
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.473.34safe0.71–3.030.38–2.571.09–5.59safer0.41–3.330.09–2.850.50–6.18
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.203.79safe0.54–2.641.07–3.331.61–5.96safer0.27–2.900.78–3.621.05–6.52
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
41%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.066.07safe1.57–4.441.51–4.623.07–9.06safer1.18–4.831.08–5.052.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.18 0.33–2.03 0.10–2.26 | 2.56 0.73–4.38 0.25–4.86 | 41% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.62–6.35 2.13–6.84 | 4.33 2.59–6.08 2.12–6.54 | 8.82 5.21–12.42 4.26–13.38 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.67 9.75–17.60 8.66–18.69 | 12.75 9.19–16.32 8.23–17.28 | 26.43 18.94–33.92 16.89–35.97 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 8.31 5.36–11.25 4.53–12.08 | 9.12 6.44–11.80 5.70–12.54 | 17.42 11.80–23.05 10.23–24.61 | 38% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.61–5.38 1.07–5.92 | 3.92 2.27–5.57 1.77–6.07 | 7.42 3.88–10.95 2.85–11.99 | 37% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 5.55 3.33–7.76 2.76–8.33 | 4.63 2.63–6.63 2.10–7.16 | 10.18 5.96–14.39 4.86–15.50 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.81 45.02–58.60 43.35–60.27 | 48.23 41.45–55.02 39.77–56.69 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 460 392–527 374–545 | 427 360–493 343–511 | 886 753–1020 717–1056 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.59 62.56–70.62 61.26–71.91 | 69.34 65.01–73.66 63.70–74.97 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 10.61 7.77–13.45 7.02–14.20 | 11.62 8.67–14.56 7.92–15.31 | 22.23 16.44–28.01 14.94–29.51 | 37% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.47 0.38–2.57 0.09–2.85 | 3.34 1.09–5.59 0.50–6.18 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.27–2.90 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 3.79 1.61–5.96 1.05–6.52 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 3.06 1.51–4.62 1.08–5.05 | 6.07 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 41% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.