Premier League·Regular Season - 35·
Premier League·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.132.48safe0.39–2.320.28–1.990.66–4.31safer0.13–2.570.05–2.210.18–4.79
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.803.908.70safe2.94–6.662.16–5.645.10–12.31safer2.45–7.151.69–6.114.14–13.26
Total shots
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8111.6026.41safe10.88–18.738.04–15.1618.92–33.90safer9.79–19.827.08–16.1216.87–35.95
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.427.6517.08safe6.48–12.364.97–10.3411.45–22.70safer5.65–13.194.24–11.079.89–24.27
Blocked shots
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.087.63safe2.67–6.441.42–4.734.10–11.17safer2.13–6.980.93–5.223.06–12.20
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.589.88safe3.09–7.512.58–6.585.67–14.09safer2.51–8.092.04–7.114.56–15.20
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.8751.18safe42.08–55.6644.39–57.96safer40.41–57.3342.72–59.63
Passes
47%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction430439869safe363–497373–506736–1003safer345–516355–523700–1039
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction66.7670.81safe62.74–70.7966.49–75.14safer61.44–72.0965.18–76.45
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2111.2022.41safe8.37–14.058.25–14.1416.63–28.19safer7.62–14.807.51–14.8915.12–29.70
Offsides
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.382.023.40safe0.22–2.540.93–3.121.15–5.66safer0.00–2.840.64–3.400.56–6.25
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.793.25safe0.42–2.510.66–2.921.08–5.43safer0.15–2.780.37–3.210.52–5.99
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
30%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.593.395.98safe1.16–4.031.83–4.942.99–8.97safer0.77–4.421.41–5.372.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.13 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.21 | 2.48 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.94–6.66 2.45–7.15 | 3.90 2.16–5.64 1.69–6.11 | 8.70 5.10–12.31 4.14–13.26 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.81 10.88–18.73 9.79–19.82 | 11.60 8.04–15.16 7.08–16.12 | 26.41 18.92–33.90 16.87–35.95 | 70% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.42 6.48–12.36 5.65–13.19 | 7.65 4.97–10.34 4.24–11.07 | 17.08 11.45–22.70 9.89–24.27 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.56 2.67–6.44 2.13–6.98 | 3.08 1.42–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 7.63 4.10–11.17 3.06–12.20 | 64% 23% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.09–7.51 2.51–8.09 | 4.58 2.58–6.58 2.04–7.11 | 9.88 5.67–14.09 4.56–15.20 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.87 42.08–55.66 40.41–57.33 | 51.18 44.39–57.96 42.72–59.63 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 430 363–497 345–516 | 439 373–506 355–523 | 869 736–1003 700–1039 | 47% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.76 62.74–70.79 61.44–72.09 | 70.81 66.49–75.14 65.18–76.45 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 11.21 8.37–14.05 7.62–14.80 | 11.20 8.25–14.14 7.51–14.89 | 22.41 16.63–28.19 15.12–29.70 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 2.02 0.93–3.12 0.64–3.40 | 3.40 1.15–5.66 0.56–6.25 | 26% 22% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.42–2.51 0.15–2.78 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.25 1.08–5.43 0.52–5.99 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 3.39 1.83–4.94 1.41–5.37 | 5.98 2.99–8.97 2.17–9.78 | 30% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.