Premier League·Regular Season - 6·
Premier League·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
24%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.682.93safe0.27–2.210.83–2.541.10–4.75safer0.02–2.460.60–2.770.62–5.23
Shots on target
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.525.369.87safe2.65–6.383.61–7.106.27–13.48safer2.16–6.873.15–7.565.31–14.43
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5213.8027.31safe9.59–17.4410.23–17.3619.83–34.80safer8.50–18.549.27–18.3217.78–36.85
Shots in box
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.609.4818.08safe5.65–11.546.80–12.1712.46–23.70safer4.82–12.376.07–12.9010.89–25.27
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.117.64safe1.65–5.412.45–5.764.10–11.17safer1.10–5.951.96–6.253.07–12.21
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.885.119.99safe2.67–7.093.11–7.115.77–14.20safer2.09–7.672.57–7.644.66–15.31
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction41.0359.53safe34.24–47.8252.75–66.32safer32.57–49.4951.08–67.99
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction382566947safe315–449499–632814–1081safer297–467482–650778–1117
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction72.0181.85safe67.98–76.0477.53–86.18safer66.69–77.3376.22–87.49
Fouls
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction11.839.6221.45safe8.99–14.676.68–12.5715.67–27.24safer8.24–15.425.93–13.3214.17–28.74
Offsides
46%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.355.00safe1.49–3.811.26–3.442.75–7.25safer1.19–4.110.97–3.732.16–7.84
Yellow cards
50%
20%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.321.784.10safe1.27–3.370.65–2.911.92–6.28safer1.00–3.630.36–3.201.37–6.84
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.16safe0.00–0.260.00–0.250.00–0.51safer0.00–0.410.00–0.380.00–0.79
GK saves
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.186.45safe1.83–4.701.63–4.743.46–9.44safer1.44–5.091.20–5.162.65–10.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.68 0.83–2.54 0.60–2.77 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 28% 24% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.52 2.65–6.38 2.16–6.87 | 5.36 3.61–7.10 3.15–7.56 | 9.87 6.27–13.48 5.31–14.43 | 33% 54% |
| Total shots | 13.52 9.59–17.44 8.50–18.54 | 13.80 10.23–17.36 9.27–18.32 | 27.31 19.83–34.80 17.78–36.85 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.60 5.65–11.54 4.82–12.37 | 9.48 6.80–12.17 6.07–12.90 | 18.08 12.46–23.70 10.89–25.27 | 37% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.41 1.10–5.95 | 4.11 2.45–5.76 1.96–6.25 | 7.64 4.10–11.17 3.07–12.21 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.09 2.09–7.67 | 5.11 3.11–7.11 2.57–7.64 | 9.99 5.77–14.20 4.66–15.31 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 41.03 34.24–47.82 32.57–49.49 | 59.53 52.75–66.32 51.08–67.99 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 382 315–449 297–467 | 566 499–632 482–650 | 947 814–1081 778–1117 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.01 67.98–76.04 66.69–77.33 | 81.85 77.53–86.18 76.22–87.49 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.83 8.99–14.67 8.24–15.42 | 9.62 6.68–12.57 5.93–13.32 | 21.45 15.67–27.24 14.17–28.74 | 64% 28% |
| Offsides | 2.65 1.49–3.81 1.19–4.11 | 2.35 1.26–3.44 0.97–3.73 | 5.00 2.75–7.25 2.16–7.84 | 46% 18% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.27–3.37 1.00–3.63 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 4.10 1.92–6.28 1.37–6.84 | 50% 20% 30% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.83–4.70 1.44–5.09 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 6.45 3.46–9.44 2.65–10.26 | 43% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.