Premier League·Regular Season - 35·
Premier League·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
64%
19%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.063.28safe1.25–3.190.21–1.911.45–5.10safer1.00–3.440.00–2.140.97–5.58
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.914.2010.11safe4.05–7.772.46–5.946.50–13.71safer3.56–8.261.99–6.415.55–14.67
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7010.9926.69safe11.78–19.637.43–14.5519.21–34.18safer10.69–20.726.47–15.5117.16–36.23
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.277.6617.93safe7.33–13.214.97–10.3412.30–23.55safer6.50–14.044.24–11.0710.74–25.12
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.472.516.99safe2.59–6.360.86–4.163.45–10.52safer2.05–6.900.37–4.662.41–11.56
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.073.9610.03safe3.86–8.291.96–5.965.82–14.24safer3.29–8.861.42–6.494.71–15.35
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction60.0940.47safe53.30–66.8833.68–47.25safer51.63–68.5532.01–48.92
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction599391991safe532–667325–458857–1124safer514–685307–475821–1160
Pass accuracy %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction80.5774.21safe76.54–84.6069.88–78.53safer75.25–85.8968.57–79.84
Fouls
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2511.9121.16safe6.41–12.098.97–14.8615.38–26.94safer5.66–12.848.22–15.6013.87–28.45
Offsides
33%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.785.11safe1.17–3.491.69–3.872.86–7.36safer0.87–3.791.40–4.162.27–7.95
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.153.65safe0.45–2.551.02–3.271.47–5.82safer0.18–2.810.73–3.570.91–6.38
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.486.23safe1.32–4.191.92–5.033.23–9.22safer0.93–4.571.49–5.462.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.22 1.25–3.19 1.00–3.44 | 1.06 0.21–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 3.28 1.45–5.10 0.97–5.58 | 64% 19% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.91 4.05–7.77 3.56–8.26 | 4.20 2.46–5.94 1.99–6.41 | 10.11 6.50–13.71 5.55–14.67 | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.70 11.78–19.63 10.69–20.72 | 10.99 7.43–14.55 6.47–15.51 | 26.69 19.21–34.18 17.16–36.23 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.27 7.33–13.21 6.50–14.04 | 7.66 4.97–10.34 4.24–11.07 | 17.93 12.30–23.55 10.74–25.12 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 2.59–6.36 2.05–6.90 | 2.51 0.86–4.16 0.37–4.66 | 6.99 3.45–10.52 2.41–11.56 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.07 3.86–8.29 3.29–8.86 | 3.96 1.96–5.96 1.42–6.49 | 10.03 5.82–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 60.09 53.30–66.88 51.63–68.55 | 40.47 33.68–47.25 32.01–48.92 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 599 532–667 514–685 | 391 325–458 307–475 | 991 857–1124 821–1160 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.57 76.54–84.60 75.25–85.89 | 74.21 69.88–78.53 68.57–79.84 | — | 78% 19% |
| Fouls | 9.25 6.41–12.09 5.66–12.84 | 11.91 8.97–14.86 8.22–15.60 | 21.16 15.38–26.94 13.87–28.45 | 25% 68% |
| Offsides | 2.33 1.17–3.49 0.87–3.79 | 2.78 1.69–3.87 1.40–4.16 | 5.11 2.86–7.36 2.27–7.95 | 33% 18% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.18–2.81 | 2.15 1.02–3.27 0.73–3.57 | 3.65 1.47–5.82 0.91–6.38 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.57 | 3.48 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.46 | 6.23 3.23–9.22 2.42–10.03 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.