Premier League·Regular Season - 6·
Premier League·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.243.04safe0.83–2.770.39–2.101.22–4.86safer0.58–3.020.16–2.330.74–5.34
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.004.3310.33safe4.14–7.872.58–6.076.72–13.93safer3.65–8.362.12–6.535.77–14.89
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1612.5228.68safe12.24–20.098.96–16.0821.20–36.17safer11.15–21.188.00–17.0419.15–38.22
Shots in box
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction11.628.7720.39safe8.68–14.566.09–11.4614.77–26.02safer7.85–15.395.36–12.1913.20–27.58
Blocked shots
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.883.678.55safe3.00–6.772.01–5.325.02–12.09safer2.46–7.311.52–5.813.98–13.12
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.774.6010.37safe3.55–7.982.60–6.606.15–14.58safer2.98–8.552.07–7.135.05–15.69
Possession %
55%
41%
homeawayprediction51.7048.75safe44.91–58.4941.97–55.54safer43.24–60.1640.30–57.21
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction486466952safe419–553400–532818–1086safer401–571382–550783–1121
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction75.7278.60safe71.69–79.7574.28–82.92safer70.39–81.0472.97–84.23
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3411.9423.28safe8.50–14.188.99–14.8817.50–29.06safer7.75–14.948.24–15.6315.99–30.56
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.683.61safe0.77–3.090.59–2.771.36–5.87safer0.47–3.400.30–3.060.77–6.46
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.464.18safe0.67–2.771.33–3.592.00–6.36safer0.40–3.031.04–3.881.44–6.91
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.934.117.04safe1.49–4.372.56–5.674.05–10.03safer1.11–4.752.13–6.093.24–10.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.83–2.77 0.58–3.02 | 1.24 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 3.04 1.22–4.86 0.74–5.34 | 50% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 6.00 4.14–7.87 3.65–8.36 | 4.33 2.58–6.07 2.12–6.53 | 10.33 6.72–13.93 5.77–14.89 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 16.16 12.24–20.09 11.15–21.18 | 12.52 8.96–16.08 8.00–17.04 | 28.68 21.20–36.17 19.15–38.22 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 11.62 8.68–14.56 7.85–15.39 | 8.77 6.09–11.46 5.36–12.19 | 20.39 14.77–26.02 13.20–27.58 | 70% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.88 3.00–6.77 2.46–7.31 | 3.67 2.01–5.32 1.52–5.81 | 8.55 5.02–12.09 3.98–13.12 | 60% 28% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.55–7.98 2.98–8.55 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.07–7.13 | 10.37 6.15–14.58 5.05–15.69 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.70 44.91–58.49 43.24–60.16 | 48.75 41.97–55.54 40.30–57.21 | — | 55% 41% |
| Passes | 486 419–553 401–571 | 466 400–532 382–550 | 952 818–1086 783–1121 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.72 71.69–79.75 70.39–81.04 | 78.60 74.28–82.92 72.97–84.23 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.34 8.50–14.18 7.75–14.94 | 11.94 8.99–14.88 8.24–15.63 | 23.28 17.50–29.06 15.99–30.56 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.40 | 1.68 0.59–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 3.61 1.36–5.87 0.77–6.46 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.03 | 2.46 1.33–3.59 1.04–3.88 | 4.18 2.00–6.36 1.44–6.91 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.49–4.37 1.11–4.75 | 4.11 2.56–5.67 2.13–6.09 | 7.04 4.05–10.03 3.24–10.85 | 26% 14% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.