Premier League·Regular Season - 37·
Premier League·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.783.25safe0.50–2.430.93–2.641.43–5.07safer0.25–2.690.70–2.870.95–5.55
Shots on target
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.885.1610.04safe3.02–6.743.42–6.916.44–13.65safer2.53–7.232.95–7.375.48–14.60
Total shots
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2213.8929.11safe11.29–19.1410.33–17.4621.63–36.60safer10.20–20.239.37–18.4219.57–38.65
Shots in box
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction9.939.6119.54safe6.99–12.876.93–12.2913.92–25.16safer6.16–13.706.19–13.0312.35–26.73
Blocked shots
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.308.93safe2.75–6.522.64–5.955.40–12.47safer2.21–7.062.15–6.444.36–13.50
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.7010.38safe3.47–7.902.70–6.706.17–14.60safer2.90–8.472.16–7.235.06–15.70
Possession %
55%
41%
homeawayprediction51.5148.58safe44.72–58.3041.79–55.36safer43.05–59.9740.12–57.04
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction501457959safe434–568391–524825–1092safer416–587374–541789–1128
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction76.4277.73safe72.39–80.4573.41–82.05safer71.09–81.7472.10–83.36
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2911.0822.37safe8.45–14.138.13–14.0216.59–28.15safer7.70–14.887.38–14.7715.08–29.66
Offsides
38%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.743.45safe0.55–2.870.65–2.831.20–5.70safer0.25–3.170.36–3.120.61–6.29
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.823.58safe0.71–2.810.69–2.951.40–5.76safer0.45–3.080.40–3.240.85–6.32
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.413.286.69safe1.98–4.851.72–4.833.69–9.68safer1.59–5.241.30–5.262.88–10.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.43 0.25–2.69 | 1.78 0.93–2.64 0.70–2.87 | 3.25 1.43–5.07 0.95–5.55 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.02–6.74 2.53–7.23 | 5.16 3.42–6.91 2.95–7.37 | 10.04 6.44–13.65 5.48–14.60 | 40% 47% |
| Total shots | 15.22 11.29–19.14 10.20–20.23 | 13.89 10.33–17.46 9.37–18.42 | 29.11 21.63–36.60 19.57–38.65 | 56% 37% |
| Shots in box | 9.93 6.99–12.87 6.16–13.70 | 9.61 6.93–12.29 6.19–13.03 | 19.54 13.92–25.16 12.35–26.73 | 48% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 4.63 2.75–6.52 2.21–7.06 | 4.30 2.64–5.95 2.15–6.44 | 8.93 5.40–12.47 4.36–13.50 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.47–7.90 2.90–8.47 | 4.70 2.70–6.70 2.16–7.23 | 10.38 6.17–14.60 5.06–15.70 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 51.51 44.72–58.30 43.05–59.97 | 48.58 41.79–55.36 40.12–57.04 | — | 55% 41% |
| Passes | 501 434–568 416–587 | 457 391–524 374–541 | 959 825–1092 789–1128 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.42 72.39–80.45 71.09–81.74 | 77.73 73.41–82.05 72.10–83.36 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 11.29 8.45–14.13 7.70–14.88 | 11.08 8.13–14.02 7.38–14.77 | 22.37 16.59–28.15 15.08–29.66 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.74 0.65–2.83 0.36–3.12 | 3.45 1.20–5.70 0.61–6.29 | 38% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 1.82 0.69–2.95 0.40–3.24 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.85–6.32 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.41 1.98–4.85 1.59–5.24 | 3.28 1.72–4.83 1.30–5.26 | 6.69 3.69–9.68 2.88–10.49 | 44% 16% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+