Premier League·Regular Season - 6·
Premier League·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
25%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.612.73safe0.15–2.090.75–2.460.91–4.55safer0.00–2.340.53–2.690.43–5.03
Shots on target
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.034.838.86safe2.17–5.893.09–6.575.25–12.46safer1.68–6.382.62–7.044.30–13.42
Total shots
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6613.5325.19safe7.74–15.599.97–17.0917.71–32.68safer6.65–16.689.01–18.0515.65–34.73
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction7.948.9016.85safe5.00–10.896.22–11.5811.22–22.47safer4.17–11.725.48–12.329.66–24.04
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.194.187.37safe1.30–5.072.53–5.833.83–10.90safer0.76–5.612.04–6.332.80–11.94
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.909.55safe2.43–6.862.90–6.905.33–13.76safer1.86–7.432.37–7.444.23–14.87
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction37.3562.35safe30.56–44.1455.57–69.13safer28.89–45.8153.89–70.81
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction321537858safe253–388470–603724–991safer235–406453–621688–1027
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction64.0279.76safe59.99–68.0575.44–84.08safer58.70–69.3474.13–85.39
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3312.9324.26safe8.49–14.179.98–15.8718.48–30.04safer7.74–14.929.24–16.6216.97–31.55
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.343.25safe0.74–3.060.25–2.440.99–5.50safer0.44–3.360.00–2.720.40–6.09
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.384.46safe1.03–3.131.25–3.512.29–6.64safer0.77–3.400.96–3.801.73–7.20
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.162.745.90safe1.72–4.591.18–4.292.90–8.89safer1.33–4.980.76–4.722.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 1.61 0.75–2.46 0.53–2.69 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 27% 25% 49% |
| Shots on target | 4.03 2.17–5.89 1.68–6.38 | 4.83 3.09–6.57 2.62–7.04 | 8.86 5.25–12.46 4.30–13.42 | 33% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 11.66 7.74–15.59 6.65–16.68 | 13.53 9.97–17.09 9.01–18.05 | 25.19 17.71–32.68 15.65–34.73 | 32% 61% |
| Shots in box | 7.94 5.00–10.89 4.17–11.72 | 8.90 6.22–11.58 5.48–12.32 | 16.85 11.22–22.47 9.66–24.04 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.19 1.30–5.07 0.76–5.61 | 4.18 2.53–5.83 2.04–6.33 | 7.37 3.83–10.90 2.80–11.94 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.64 2.43–6.86 1.86–7.43 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.37–7.44 | 9.55 5.33–13.76 4.23–14.87 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 37.35 30.56–44.14 28.89–45.81 | 62.35 55.57–69.13 53.89–70.81 | — | 92% |
| Passes | 321 253–388 235–406 | 537 470–603 453–621 | 858 724–991 688–1027 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.02 59.99–68.05 58.70–69.34 | 79.76 75.44–84.08 74.13–85.39 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 11.33 8.49–14.17 7.74–14.92 | 12.93 9.98–15.87 9.24–16.62 | 24.26 18.48–30.04 16.97–31.55 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.34 0.25–2.44 0.00–2.72 | 3.25 0.99–5.50 0.40–6.09 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.77–3.40 | 2.38 1.25–3.51 0.96–3.80 | 4.46 2.29–6.64 1.73–7.20 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.16 1.72–4.59 1.33–4.98 | 2.74 1.18–4.29 0.76–4.72 | 5.90 2.90–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+