Premier League·Regular Season - 35·
Premier League·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
23%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.790.992.78safe0.82–2.760.13–1.840.96–4.60safer0.57–3.010.00–2.070.48–5.08
Shots on target
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.593.549.13safe3.73–7.451.80–5.285.52–12.73safer3.24–7.941.33–5.754.57–13.69
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.309.8126.11safe12.37–20.226.25–13.3818.63–33.60safer11.28–21.315.29–14.3416.58–35.65
Shots in box
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction10.947.1718.11safe8.00–13.884.49–9.8512.48–23.73safer7.17–14.713.75–10.5910.92–25.30
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.752.787.53safe2.87–6.631.13–4.444.00–11.07safer2.32–7.170.64–4.932.96–12.10
Corners
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.784.0210.80safe4.57–9.002.02–6.026.59–15.02safer4.00–9.571.49–6.555.48–16.12
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.3635.94safe56.57–70.1529.16–42.73safer54.90–71.8227.49–44.40
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction561318878safe493–628251–384745–1012safer475–646234–402709–1048
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction78.8666.57safe74.83–82.8962.25–70.90safer73.54–84.1860.94–72.21
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1011.0923.19safe9.26–14.938.14–14.0317.40–28.97safer8.50–15.697.40–14.7815.90–30.47
Offsides
30%
24%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.723.05safe0.17–2.490.63–2.810.80–5.31safer0.00–2.790.34–3.100.21–5.90
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.163.89safe0.67–2.771.04–3.291.71–6.06safer0.40–3.040.74–3.591.15–6.62
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.293.826.12safe0.86–3.732.27–5.383.12–9.11safer0.47–4.121.84–5.802.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 0.82–2.76 0.57–3.01 | 0.99 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 56% 23% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.59 3.73–7.45 3.24–7.94 | 3.54 1.80–5.28 1.33–5.75 | 9.13 5.52–12.73 4.57–13.69 | 70% 20% |
| Total shots | 16.30 12.37–20.22 11.28–21.31 | 9.81 6.25–13.38 5.29–14.34 | 26.11 18.63–33.60 16.58–35.65 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 10.94 8.00–13.88 7.17–14.71 | 7.17 4.49–9.85 3.75–10.59 | 18.11 12.48–23.73 10.92–25.30 | 78% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 2.87–6.63 2.32–7.17 | 2.78 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 7.53 4.00–11.07 2.96–12.10 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.78 4.57–9.00 4.00–9.57 | 4.02 2.02–6.02 1.49–6.55 | 10.80 6.59–15.02 5.48–16.12 | 76% 16% |
| Possession % | 63.36 56.57–70.15 54.90–71.82 | 35.94 29.16–42.73 27.49–44.40 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 561 493–628 475–646 | 318 251–384 234–402 | 878 745–1012 709–1048 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.86 74.83–82.89 73.54–84.18 | 66.57 62.25–70.90 60.94–72.21 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 12.10 9.26–14.93 8.50–15.69 | 11.09 8.14–14.03 7.40–14.78 | 23.19 17.40–28.97 15.90–30.47 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.17–2.49 0.00–2.79 | 1.72 0.63–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.05 0.80–5.31 0.21–5.90 | 30% 24% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.04 | 2.16 1.04–3.29 0.74–3.59 | 3.89 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.62 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.29 0.86–3.73 0.47–4.12 | 3.82 2.27–5.38 1.84–5.80 | 6.12 3.12–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.