Premier League·Regular Season - 7·
Premier League·Regular Season - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.022.43safe0.44–2.380.17–1.880.61–4.26safer0.19–2.630.00–2.110.13–4.74
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.397.93safe2.68–6.411.64–5.134.33–11.54safer2.19–6.901.18–5.593.37–12.49
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7510.4425.19safe10.83–18.686.87–14.0017.70–32.68safer9.74–19.775.91–14.9615.65–34.73
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.846.7815.61safe5.89–11.784.10–9.469.99–21.24safer5.06–12.613.36–10.208.42–22.80
Blocked shots
60%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.313.127.43safe2.43–6.191.47–4.783.90–10.97safer1.88–6.730.98–5.272.86–12.00
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.894.2510.13safe3.67–8.102.25–6.255.92–14.35safer3.10–8.671.71–6.784.81–15.45
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.2144.73safe48.42–62.0037.95–51.52safer46.75–63.6736.27–53.19
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction463367830safe395–530301–434696–964safer377–548283–451661–999
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction69.3567.46safe65.32–73.3863.14–71.79safer64.02–74.6761.83–73.10
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4813.0825.56safe9.64–15.3210.14–16.0319.78–31.35safer8.89–16.089.39–16.7818.28–32.85
Offsides
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.592.97safe0.22–2.540.50–2.690.71–5.22safer0.00–2.840.21–2.970.13–5.81
Yellow cards
27%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.654.54safe0.84–2.931.52–3.782.36–6.71safer0.57–3.201.23–4.071.80–7.27
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
28%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.343.185.52safe0.90–3.781.62–4.732.52–8.51safer0.52–4.161.20–5.161.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.02 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.43 0.61–4.26 0.13–4.74 | 46% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.41 2.19–6.90 | 3.39 1.64–5.13 1.18–5.59 | 7.93 4.33–11.54 3.37–12.49 | 59% 13% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.75 10.83–18.68 9.74–19.77 | 10.44 6.87–14.00 5.91–14.96 | 25.19 17.70–32.68 15.65–34.73 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.89–11.78 5.06–12.61 | 6.78 4.10–9.46 3.36–10.20 | 15.61 9.99–21.24 8.42–22.80 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 2.43–6.19 1.88–6.73 | 3.12 1.47–4.78 0.98–5.27 | 7.43 3.90–10.97 2.86–12.00 | 60% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.89 3.67–8.10 3.10–8.67 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.71–6.78 | 10.13 5.92–14.35 4.81–15.45 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 55.21 48.42–62.00 46.75–63.67 | 44.73 37.95–51.52 36.27–53.19 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 463 395–530 377–548 | 367 301–434 283–451 | 830 696–964 661–999 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.35 65.32–73.38 64.02–74.67 | 67.46 63.14–71.79 61.83–73.10 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 12.48 9.64–15.32 8.89–16.08 | 13.08 10.14–16.03 9.39–16.78 | 25.56 19.78–31.35 18.28–32.85 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.59 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.97 | 2.97 0.71–5.22 0.13–5.81 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.93 0.57–3.20 | 2.65 1.52–3.78 1.23–4.07 | 4.54 2.36–6.71 1.80–7.27 | 27% 18% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.34 0.90–3.78 0.52–4.16 | 3.18 1.62–4.73 1.20–5.16 | 5.52 2.52–8.51 1.71–9.32 | 28% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+