Premier League·Regular Season - 36·
Premier League·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
28%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.252.41safe0.20–2.130.40–2.110.59–4.24safer0.00–2.380.17–2.330.11–4.72
Shots on target
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.803.907.70safe1.93–5.662.16–5.644.09–11.30safer1.44–6.151.69–6.113.14–12.26
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6212.2524.87safe8.70–16.558.69–15.8117.38–32.36safer7.60–17.647.73–16.7715.33–34.41
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.787.7515.54safe4.84–10.735.07–10.439.91–21.16safer4.01–11.564.33–11.178.35–22.73
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.253.746.99safe1.37–5.132.09–5.403.46–10.53safer0.82–5.671.60–5.892.42–11.56
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.869.95safe2.87–7.302.86–6.865.74–14.16safer2.30–7.872.33–7.404.63–15.27
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction47.0253.07safe40.23–53.8146.28–59.85safer38.56–55.4844.61–61.52
Passes
38%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction397434831safe330–464368–501698–965safer312–482350–518662–1001
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction65.8272.77safe61.79–69.8568.45–77.10safer60.50–71.1467.14–78.41
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4213.1625.58safe9.58–15.2610.22–16.1019.80–31.36safer8.83–16.019.47–16.8518.29–32.87
Offsides
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.282.85safe0.42–2.740.19–2.370.60–5.11safer0.11–3.040.00–2.660.01–5.70
Yellow cards
39%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.114.20safe1.03–3.130.98–3.242.02–6.37safer0.77–3.400.69–3.531.46–6.93
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.675.35safe1.25–4.121.12–4.232.36–8.35safer0.86–4.510.69–4.651.55–9.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.20–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.25 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.33 | 2.41 0.59–4.24 0.11–4.72 | 34% 28% 38% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.93–5.66 1.44–6.15 | 3.90 2.16–5.64 1.69–6.11 | 7.70 4.09–11.30 3.14–12.26 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.62 8.70–16.55 7.60–17.64 | 12.25 8.69–15.81 7.73–16.77 | 24.87 17.38–32.36 15.33–34.41 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 7.78 4.84–10.73 4.01–11.56 | 7.75 5.07–10.43 4.33–11.17 | 15.54 9.91–21.16 8.35–22.73 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.37–5.13 0.82–5.67 | 3.74 2.09–5.40 1.60–5.89 | 6.99 3.46–10.53 2.42–11.56 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.87–7.30 2.30–7.87 | 4.86 2.86–6.86 2.33–7.40 | 9.95 5.74–14.16 4.63–15.27 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 47.02 40.23–53.81 38.56–55.48 | 53.07 46.28–59.85 44.61–61.52 | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 397 330–464 312–482 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 831 698–965 662–1001 | 38% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.82 61.79–69.85 60.50–71.14 | 72.77 68.45–77.10 67.14–78.41 | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.58–15.26 8.83–16.01 | 13.16 10.22–16.10 9.47–16.85 | 25.58 19.80–31.36 18.29–32.87 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.11–3.04 | 1.28 0.19–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 2.85 0.60–5.11 0.01–5.70 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.77–3.40 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 4.20 2.02–6.37 1.46–6.93 | 39% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 2.67 1.12–4.23 0.69–4.65 | 5.35 2.36–8.35 1.55–9.16 | 41% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.