Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.492.62safe0.17–2.110.63–2.340.80–4.45safer0.00–2.360.40–2.570.32–4.93
Shots on target
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.978.80safe1.97–5.693.23–6.725.20–12.41safer1.48–6.182.77–7.184.24–13.37
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2414.8927.13safe8.32–16.1711.33–18.4619.65–34.62safer7.22–17.2610.37–19.4217.60–36.67
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.369.4316.79safe4.42–10.316.75–12.1111.17–22.42safer3.59–11.146.01–12.859.60–23.98
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.817.35safe1.66–5.432.15–5.463.81–10.89safer1.12–5.971.66–5.952.78–11.92
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.825.3910.21safe2.61–7.043.39–7.396.00–14.43safer2.04–7.612.86–7.924.89–15.53
Possession %
21%
76%
homeawayprediction44.2757.02safe37.48–51.0750.23–63.80safer35.81–52.7348.56–65.47
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction371499870safe303–438433–566736–1004safer285–456415–583701–1039
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction65.1274.89safe61.09–69.1570.56–79.21safer59.80–70.4469.25–80.52
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4310.9821.41safe7.59–13.278.04–13.9315.63–27.19safer6.84–14.027.29–14.6814.12–28.70
Offsides
43%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.164.45safe1.13–3.451.06–3.252.19–6.70safer0.83–3.750.78–3.541.60–7.29
Yellow cards
34%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.023.79safe0.72–2.820.89–3.151.61–5.97safer0.45–3.080.60–3.441.05–6.53
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.756.09safe1.91–4.781.19–4.303.10–9.08safer1.52–5.170.76–4.732.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.49 0.63–2.34 0.40–2.57 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 29% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.97–5.69 1.48–6.18 | 4.97 3.23–6.72 2.77–7.18 | 8.80 5.20–12.41 4.24–13.37 | 29% 58% |
| Total shots | 12.24 8.32–16.17 7.22–17.26 | 14.89 11.33–18.46 10.37–19.42 | 27.13 19.65–34.62 17.60–36.67 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 7.36 4.42–10.31 3.59–11.14 | 9.43 6.75–12.11 6.01–12.85 | 16.79 11.17–22.42 9.60–23.98 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.43 1.12–5.97 | 3.81 2.15–5.46 1.66–5.95 | 7.35 3.81–10.89 2.78–11.92 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.82 2.61–7.04 2.04–7.61 | 5.39 3.39–7.39 2.86–7.92 | 10.21 6.00–14.43 4.89–15.53 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 44.27 37.48–51.07 35.81–52.73 | 57.02 50.23–63.80 48.56–65.47 | — | 21% 76% |
| Passes | 371 303–438 285–456 | 499 433–566 415–583 | 870 736–1004 701–1039 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.12 61.09–69.15 59.80–70.44 | 74.89 70.56–79.21 69.25–80.52 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.43 7.59–13.27 6.84–14.02 | 10.98 8.04–13.93 7.29–14.68 | 21.41 15.63–27.19 14.12–28.70 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.29 1.13–3.45 0.83–3.75 | 2.16 1.06–3.25 0.78–3.54 | 4.45 2.19–6.70 1.60–7.29 | 43% 20% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.45–3.08 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.79 1.61–5.97 1.05–6.53 | 34% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.91–4.78 1.52–5.17 | 2.75 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.73 | 6.09 3.10–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.