Premier League·Regular Season - 7·
Premier League·Regular Season - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
24%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.722.91safe0.23–2.170.86–2.571.09–4.74safer0.00–2.420.63–2.800.61–5.22
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.059.03safe2.12–5.843.31–6.795.42–12.63safer1.63–6.332.84–7.264.47–13.59
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3315.3027.64safe8.41–16.2611.74–18.8720.15–35.13safer7.32–17.3510.78–19.8318.10–37.18
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction8.069.3617.42safe5.12–11.016.68–12.0411.80–23.05safer4.29–11.845.94–12.7810.23–24.61
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.724.388.10safe1.84–5.602.73–6.044.57–11.64safer1.30–6.152.24–6.533.53–12.68
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction5.055.3810.43safe2.84–7.273.38–7.386.22–14.65safer2.27–7.842.84–7.915.11–15.75
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction41.3358.41safe34.54–48.1251.63–65.20safer32.87–49.7949.96–66.87
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction381520901safe314–448454–587768–1035safer295–466436–604732–1071
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction66.3177.52safe62.28–70.3473.20–81.85safer60.98–71.6371.89–83.15
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4610.4420.90safe7.62–13.297.50–13.3915.12–26.68safer6.86–14.056.75–14.1413.61–28.19
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.953.65safe0.53–2.850.86–3.041.39–5.90safer0.23–3.160.57–3.330.80–6.49
Yellow cards
34%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.963.64safe0.64–2.740.83–3.091.47–5.82safer0.37–3.000.54–3.380.91–6.38
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
54%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.806.34safe2.10–4.981.24–4.363.35–9.33safer1.72–5.360.82–4.782.54–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.72 0.86–2.57 0.63–2.80 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 27% 24% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.12–5.84 1.63–6.33 | 5.05 3.31–6.79 2.84–7.26 | 9.03 5.42–12.63 4.47–13.59 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 12.33 8.41–16.26 7.32–17.35 | 15.30 11.74–18.87 10.78–19.83 | 27.64 20.15–35.13 18.10–37.18 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.12–11.01 4.29–11.84 | 9.36 6.68–12.04 5.94–12.78 | 17.42 11.80–23.05 10.23–24.61 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 1.84–5.60 1.30–6.15 | 4.38 2.73–6.04 2.24–6.53 | 8.10 4.57–11.64 3.53–12.68 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.27 2.27–7.84 | 5.38 3.38–7.38 2.84–7.91 | 10.43 6.22–14.65 5.11–15.75 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 41.33 34.54–48.12 32.87–49.79 | 58.41 51.63–65.20 49.96–66.87 | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 381 314–448 295–466 | 520 454–587 436–604 | 901 768–1035 732–1071 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.31 62.28–70.34 60.98–71.63 | 77.52 73.20–81.85 71.89–83.15 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 10.46 7.62–13.29 6.86–14.05 | 10.44 7.50–13.39 6.75–14.14 | 20.90 15.12–26.68 13.61–28.19 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.16 | 1.95 0.86–3.04 0.57–3.33 | 3.65 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.64 1.47–5.82 0.91–6.38 | 34% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.10–4.98 1.72–5.36 | 2.80 1.24–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 6.34 3.35–9.33 2.54–10.14 | 54% 16% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+