Premier League·Regular Season - 36·
Premier League·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.112.94safe0.86–2.800.25–1.961.12–4.76safer0.61–3.050.03–2.190.64–5.24
Shots on target
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.783.779.54safe3.91–7.642.02–5.515.94–13.15safer3.42–8.131.56–5.974.98–14.10
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction17.2310.5927.81safe13.30–21.157.02–14.1520.33–35.30safer12.21–22.246.06–15.1118.27–37.35
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction10.797.8218.61safe7.85–13.745.14–10.5012.99–24.23safer7.02–14.574.40–11.2411.42–25.80
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.383.548.92safe3.49–7.261.89–5.205.38–12.45safer2.95–7.801.40–5.694.35–13.49
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.394.1810.57safe4.17–8.602.18–6.186.35–14.78safer3.60–9.171.65–6.715.25–15.89
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction59.0441.71safe52.25–65.8334.92–48.49safer50.58–67.5033.25–50.16
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction559383942safe492–626316–449808–1075safer474–644299–467772–1111
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction75.9270.50safe71.89–79.9566.17–74.82safer70.60–81.2464.87–76.13
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4211.1221.54safe7.58–13.268.17–14.0615.76–27.32safer6.83–14.017.42–14.8114.25–28.82
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.633.62safe0.83–3.150.54–2.731.37–5.87safer0.53–3.450.25–3.010.78–6.46
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.953.35safe0.35–2.450.82–3.081.17–5.53safer0.09–2.720.53–3.370.62–6.09
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.413.846.25safe0.97–3.842.28–5.393.25–9.24safer0.58–4.231.86–5.822.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.86–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 1.11 0.25–1.96 0.03–2.19 | 2.94 1.12–4.76 0.64–5.24 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.78 3.91–7.64 3.42–8.13 | 3.77 2.02–5.51 1.56–5.97 | 9.54 5.94–13.15 4.98–14.10 | 69% 21% |
| Total shots | 17.23 13.30–21.15 12.21–22.24 | 10.59 7.02–14.15 6.06–15.11 | 27.81 20.33–35.30 18.27–37.35 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 10.79 7.85–13.74 7.02–14.57 | 7.82 5.14–10.50 4.40–11.24 | 18.61 12.99–24.23 11.42–25.80 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 5.38 3.49–7.26 2.95–7.80 | 3.54 1.89–5.20 1.40–5.69 | 8.92 5.38–12.45 4.35–13.49 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 6.39 4.17–8.60 3.60–9.17 | 4.18 2.18–6.18 1.65–6.71 | 10.57 6.35–14.78 5.25–15.89 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 59.04 52.25–65.83 50.58–67.50 | 41.71 34.92–48.49 33.25–50.16 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 559 492–626 474–644 | 383 316–449 299–467 | 942 808–1075 772–1111 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.92 71.89–79.95 70.60–81.24 | 70.50 66.17–74.82 64.87–76.13 | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 10.42 7.58–13.26 6.83–14.01 | 11.12 8.17–14.06 7.42–14.81 | 21.54 15.76–27.32 14.25–28.82 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.45 | 1.63 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.01 | 3.62 1.37–5.87 0.78–6.46 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.45 0.09–2.72 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.35 1.17–5.53 0.62–6.09 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.41 0.97–3.84 0.58–4.23 | 3.84 2.28–5.39 1.86–5.82 | 6.25 3.25–9.24 2.44–10.05 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.