Premier League·Regular Season - 7·
Premier League·Regular Season - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.472.72safe0.28–2.220.62–2.330.90–4.55safer0.03–2.470.39–2.560.42–5.03
Shots on target
36%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.678.81safe2.28–6.012.93–6.415.21–12.42safer1.79–6.502.46–6.884.25–13.37
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5014.7027.20safe8.57–16.4211.14–18.2619.71–34.69safer7.48–17.5110.18–19.2217.66–36.74
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.089.6017.68safe5.14–11.026.92–12.2812.06–23.30safer4.31–11.856.18–13.0210.49–24.87
Blocked shots
27%
13%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.404.658.04safe1.51–5.282.99–6.304.51–11.58safer0.97–5.822.50–6.793.47–12.61
Corners
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.975.3610.33safe2.76–7.193.36–7.366.12–14.54safer2.19–7.762.82–7.895.01–15.65
Possession %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction47.3153.84safe40.52–54.1047.06–60.63safer38.85–55.7745.39–62.30
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction426473900safe359–493407–540766–1033safer341–511389–557730–1069
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction69.4675.80safe65.43–73.4971.48–80.13safer64.14–74.7970.17–81.44
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5811.6023.18safe8.75–14.428.65–14.5417.40–28.96safer7.99–15.187.90–15.2915.89–30.47
Offsides
64%
17%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.841.594.43safe1.68–4.000.50–2.682.18–6.69safer1.38–4.300.21–2.971.59–7.27
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.023.95safe0.88–2.980.89–3.151.77–6.13safer0.61–3.240.60–3.441.21–6.69
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.795.83safe1.61–4.481.23–4.342.84–8.83safer1.22–4.870.80–4.772.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.56 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.28–6.01 1.79–6.50 | 4.67 2.93–6.41 2.46–6.88 | 8.81 5.21–12.42 4.25–13.37 | 36% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.50 8.57–16.42 7.48–17.51 | 14.70 11.14–18.26 10.18–19.22 | 27.20 19.71–34.69 17.66–36.74 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 8.08 5.14–11.02 4.31–11.85 | 9.60 6.92–12.28 6.18–13.02 | 17.68 12.06–23.30 10.49–24.87 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 1.51–5.28 0.97–5.82 | 4.65 2.99–6.30 2.50–6.79 | 8.04 4.51–11.58 3.47–12.61 | 27% 13% 60% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.76–7.19 2.19–7.76 | 5.36 3.36–7.36 2.82–7.89 | 10.33 6.12–14.54 5.01–15.65 | 39% 48% |
| Possession % | 47.31 40.52–54.10 38.85–55.77 | 53.84 47.06–60.63 45.39–62.30 | — | 33% 63% |
| Passes | 426 359–493 341–511 | 473 407–540 389–557 | 900 766–1033 730–1069 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.46 65.43–73.49 64.14–74.79 | 75.80 71.48–80.13 70.17–81.44 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 11.58 8.75–14.42 7.99–15.18 | 11.60 8.65–14.54 7.90–15.29 | 23.18 17.40–28.96 15.89–30.47 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.84 1.68–4.00 1.38–4.30 | 1.59 0.50–2.68 0.21–2.97 | 4.43 2.18–6.69 1.59–7.27 | 64% 17% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.61–3.24 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.95 1.77–6.13 1.21–6.69 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 2.79 1.23–4.34 0.80–4.77 | 5.83 2.84–8.83 2.03–9.64 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+