Premier League·Regular Season - 36·
Premier League·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.142.96safe0.85–2.780.29–2.001.13–4.78safer0.59–3.030.06–2.230.66–5.26
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.169.96safe3.94–7.662.42–5.906.35–13.57safer3.45–8.151.95–6.375.40–14.52
Total shots
83%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction17.4811.9129.39safe13.56–21.418.35–15.4721.91–36.88safer12.47–22.507.39–16.4319.85–38.93
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction11.378.1919.56safe8.43–14.315.51–10.8713.93–25.18safer7.60–15.144.77–11.6112.37–26.75
Blocked shots
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.052.707.75safe3.17–6.941.05–4.354.22–11.29safer2.63–7.480.55–4.843.18–12.32
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.454.1110.56safe4.24–8.662.11–6.116.34–14.77safer3.66–9.241.57–6.645.24–15.88
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction54.1345.68safe47.34–60.9238.90–52.47safer45.67–62.5937.23–54.14
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction496414910safe428–563348–481776–1044safer410–581330–498741–1079
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction75.4273.63safe71.39–79.4569.31–77.96safer70.10–80.7468.00–79.26
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6111.4823.10safe8.77–14.458.54–14.4317.31–28.88safer8.02–15.217.79–15.1815.81–30.38
Offsides
16%
15%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.513.044.55safe0.35–2.671.94–4.132.29–6.80safer0.05–2.971.65–4.421.70–7.39
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.033.63safe0.56–2.660.90–3.161.46–5.81safer0.29–2.920.61–3.450.90–6.37
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.726.47safe1.31–4.192.16–5.283.48–9.46safer0.93–4.571.74–5.702.66–10.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.85–2.78 0.59–3.03 | 1.14 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 2.96 1.13–4.78 0.66–5.26 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.80 3.94–7.66 3.45–8.15 | 4.16 2.42–5.90 1.95–6.37 | 9.96 6.35–13.57 5.40–14.52 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 17.48 13.56–21.41 12.47–22.50 | 11.91 8.35–15.47 7.39–16.43 | 29.39 21.91–36.88 19.85–38.93 | 83% 13% |
| Shots in box | 11.37 8.43–14.31 7.60–15.14 | 8.19 5.51–10.87 4.77–11.61 | 19.56 13.93–25.18 12.37–26.75 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 5.05 3.17–6.94 2.63–7.48 | 2.70 1.05–4.35 0.55–4.84 | 7.75 4.22–11.29 3.18–12.32 | 75% 15% |
| Corners | 6.45 4.24–8.66 3.66–9.24 | 4.11 2.11–6.11 1.57–6.64 | 10.56 6.34–14.77 5.24–15.88 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 54.13 47.34–60.92 45.67–62.59 | 45.68 38.90–52.47 37.23–54.14 | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 496 428–563 410–581 | 414 348–481 330–498 | 910 776–1044 741–1079 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.42 71.39–79.45 70.10–80.74 | 73.63 69.31–77.96 68.00–79.26 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 11.61 8.77–14.45 8.02–15.21 | 11.48 8.54–14.43 7.79–15.18 | 23.10 17.31–28.88 15.81–30.38 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 3.04 1.94–4.13 1.65–4.42 | 4.55 2.29–6.80 1.70–7.39 | 16% 15% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.29–2.92 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 3.63 1.46–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.31–4.19 0.93–4.57 | 3.72 2.16–5.28 1.74–5.70 | 6.47 3.48–9.46 2.66–10.27 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+