Premier League·Regular Season - 7·
Premier League·Regular Season - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
27%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction0.911.452.36safe0.00–1.880.60–2.310.54–4.19safer0.00–2.130.37–2.530.06–4.67
Shots on target
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.724.558.27safe1.86–5.582.81–6.294.66–11.87safer1.37–6.072.34–6.763.71–12.83
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0712.9825.06safe8.15–16.009.42–16.5517.57–32.55safer7.06–17.098.46–17.5115.52–34.60
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction7.318.7916.11safe4.37–10.256.11–11.4810.48–21.73safer3.54–11.085.38–12.218.92–23.30
Blocked shots
43%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.823.837.65safe1.94–5.702.18–5.484.12–11.19safer1.40–6.251.68–5.973.08–12.22
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.274.989.25safe2.06–6.482.98–6.985.04–13.47safer1.48–7.062.45–7.523.93–14.57
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.0859.10safe34.29–47.8752.31–65.88safer32.62–49.5450.64–67.55
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction353506859safe286–420439–572725–993safer268–439422–590690–1028
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction65.2577.78safe61.23–69.2873.46–82.11safer59.93–70.5872.15–83.41
Fouls
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1710.8024.96safe11.33–17.007.85–13.7419.18–30.74safer10.57–17.767.10–14.4917.68–32.25
Offsides
24%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.382.163.54safe0.22–2.541.07–3.251.28–5.79safer0.00–2.840.78–3.540.69–6.38
Yellow cards
47%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.311.964.27safe1.26–3.360.83–3.082.09–6.44safer0.99–3.630.54–3.381.53–7.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.725.57safe1.41–4.281.16–4.272.57–8.56safer1.03–4.670.74–4.701.76–9.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 1.45 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.53 | 2.36 0.54–4.19 0.06–4.67 | 24% 27% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.72 1.86–5.58 1.37–6.07 | 4.55 2.81–6.29 2.34–6.76 | 8.27 4.66–11.87 3.71–12.83 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.07 8.15–16.00 7.06–17.09 | 12.98 9.42–16.55 8.46–17.51 | 25.06 17.57–32.55 15.52–34.60 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.31 4.37–10.25 3.54–11.08 | 8.79 6.11–11.48 5.38–12.21 | 16.11 10.48–21.73 8.92–23.30 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 1.94–5.70 1.40–6.25 | 3.83 2.18–5.48 1.68–5.97 | 7.65 4.12–11.19 3.08–12.22 | 43% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 4.27 2.06–6.48 1.48–7.06 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.45–7.52 | 9.25 5.04–13.47 3.93–14.57 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 41.08 34.29–47.87 32.62–49.54 | 59.10 52.31–65.88 50.64–67.55 | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 353 286–420 268–439 | 506 439–572 422–590 | 859 725–993 690–1028 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.25 61.23–69.28 59.93–70.58 | 77.78 73.46–82.11 72.15–83.41 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 14.17 11.33–17.00 10.57–17.76 | 10.80 7.85–13.74 7.10–14.49 | 24.96 19.18–30.74 17.68–32.25 | 72% 22% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 2.16 1.07–3.25 0.78–3.54 | 3.54 1.28–5.79 0.69–6.38 | 24% 21% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.26–3.36 0.99–3.63 | 1.96 0.83–3.08 0.54–3.38 | 4.27 2.09–6.44 1.53–7.00 | 47% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.41–4.28 1.03–4.67 | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.74–4.70 | 5.57 2.57–8.56 1.76–9.37 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.