Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.272.023.29safe0.30–2.231.17–2.881.47–5.11safer0.05–2.490.94–3.100.99–5.59
Shots on target
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.125.749.86safe2.25–5.984.00–7.486.25–13.46safer1.76–6.473.53–7.955.30–14.42
Total shots
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8115.9128.72safe8.89–16.7412.35–19.4721.24–36.21safer7.80–17.8311.39–20.4319.19–38.26
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction7.9510.9118.87safe5.01–10.908.23–13.5913.24–24.49safer4.18–11.737.49–14.3311.68–26.06
Blocked shots
32%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.947.11safe1.30–5.062.28–5.593.58–10.65safer0.75–5.601.79–6.082.54–11.69
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.525.6810.20safe2.31–6.733.68–7.685.98–14.41safer1.73–7.313.14–8.214.88–15.52
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction38.6761.73safe31.88–45.4654.94–68.51safer30.21–47.1353.27–70.18
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction363588951safe296–430521–654817–1084safer278–448504–672781–1120
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction69.5783.21safe65.54–73.6078.89–87.54safer64.25–74.9077.58–88.84
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1311.9624.09safe9.29–14.979.01–14.9018.31–29.87safer8.54–15.738.26–15.6516.80–31.38
Offsides
30%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.493.205.69safe1.33–3.652.10–4.293.43–7.94safer1.03–3.951.81–4.582.85–8.53
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.152.264.41safe1.10–3.201.14–3.392.23–6.59safer0.83–3.460.84–3.681.67–7.15
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.896.56safe2.23–5.101.34–4.453.57–9.55safer1.84–5.490.91–4.872.75–10.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.23 0.05–2.49 | 2.02 1.17–2.88 0.94–3.10 | 3.29 1.47–5.11 0.99–5.59 | 24% 21% 55% |
| Shots on target | 4.12 2.25–5.98 1.76–6.47 | 5.74 4.00–7.48 3.53–7.95 | 9.86 6.25–13.46 5.30–14.42 | 25% 64% |
| Total shots | 12.81 8.89–16.74 7.80–17.83 | 15.91 12.35–19.47 11.39–20.43 | 28.72 21.24–36.21 19.19–38.26 | 25% 69% |
| Shots in box | 7.95 5.01–10.90 4.18–11.73 | 10.91 8.23–13.59 7.49–14.33 | 18.87 13.24–24.49 11.68–26.06 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.30–5.06 0.75–5.60 | 3.94 2.28–5.59 1.79–6.08 | 7.11 3.58–10.65 2.54–11.69 | 32% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.52 2.31–6.73 1.73–7.31 | 5.68 3.68–7.68 3.14–8.21 | 10.20 5.98–14.41 4.88–15.52 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 38.67 31.88–45.46 30.21–47.13 | 61.73 54.94–68.51 53.27–70.18 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 363 296–430 278–448 | 588 521–654 504–672 | 951 817–1084 781–1120 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.57 65.54–73.60 64.25–74.90 | 83.21 78.89–87.54 77.58–88.84 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 12.13 9.29–14.97 8.54–15.73 | 11.96 9.01–14.90 8.26–15.65 | 24.09 18.31–29.87 16.80–31.38 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.49 1.33–3.65 1.03–3.95 | 3.20 2.10–4.29 1.81–4.58 | 5.69 3.43–7.94 2.85–8.53 | 30% 16% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 1.10–3.20 0.83–3.46 | 2.26 1.14–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.41 2.23–6.59 1.67–7.15 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.67 2.23–5.10 1.84–5.49 | 2.89 1.34–4.45 0.91–4.87 | 6.56 3.57–9.55 2.75–10.36 | 54% 15% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.