Premier League·Regular Season - 37·
Premier League·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.550.953.50safe1.58–3.510.10–1.811.68–5.32safer1.33–3.760.00–2.041.20–5.80
Shots on target
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.633.7810.41safe4.77–8.492.04–5.526.80–14.01safer4.28–8.981.57–5.995.85–14.97
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction17.6110.0427.65safe13.69–21.546.48–13.6020.16–35.14safer12.59–22.635.52–14.5618.11–37.19
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction11.856.9318.78safe8.91–14.794.25–9.6113.16–24.41safer8.08–15.623.52–10.3511.59–25.97
Blocked shots
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.572.306.86safe2.69–6.450.64–3.953.33–10.40safer2.14–6.990.15–4.442.29–11.44
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.723.5210.24safe4.50–8.931.52–5.526.02–14.45safer3.93–9.500.99–6.054.92–15.56
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.3436.71safe56.55–70.1329.93–43.50safer54.88–71.8028.25–45.17
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction634357991safe567–701291–424858–1125safer549–719273–441822–1161
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction82.0673.21safe78.03–86.0868.89–77.54safer76.73–87.3867.58–78.85
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9711.5122.48safe8.13–13.818.56–14.4516.70–28.26safer7.38–14.577.81–15.2015.19–29.77
Offsides
47%
18%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.802.435.23safe1.64–3.961.34–3.532.98–7.49safer1.34–4.261.05–3.812.39–8.08
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.873.37safe0.45–2.550.74–3.001.20–5.55safer0.19–2.820.45–3.290.64–6.11
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.846.29safe1.02–3.892.29–5.403.30–9.29safer0.63–4.281.86–5.822.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.55 1.58–3.51 1.33–3.76 | 0.95 0.10–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 3.50 1.68–5.32 1.20–5.80 | 72% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.63 4.77–8.49 4.28–8.98 | 3.78 2.04–5.52 1.57–5.99 | 10.41 6.80–14.01 5.85–14.97 | 77% 15% |
| Total shots | 17.61 13.69–21.54 12.59–22.63 | 10.04 6.48–13.60 5.52–14.56 | 27.65 20.16–35.14 18.11–37.19 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 11.85 8.91–14.79 8.08–15.62 | 6.93 4.25–9.61 3.52–10.35 | 18.78 13.16–24.41 11.59–25.97 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 4.57 2.69–6.45 2.14–6.99 | 2.30 0.64–3.95 0.15–4.44 | 6.86 3.33–10.40 2.29–11.44 | 75% 14% |
| Corners | 6.72 4.50–8.93 3.93–9.50 | 3.52 1.52–5.52 0.99–6.05 | 10.24 6.02–14.45 4.92–15.56 | 80% |
| Possession % | 63.34 56.55–70.13 54.88–71.80 | 36.71 29.93–43.50 28.25–45.17 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 634 567–701 549–719 | 357 291–424 273–441 | 991 858–1125 822–1161 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.06 78.03–86.08 76.73–87.38 | 73.21 68.89–77.54 67.58–78.85 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.13–13.81 7.38–14.57 | 11.51 8.56–14.45 7.81–15.20 | 22.48 16.70–28.26 15.19–29.77 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.80 1.64–3.96 1.34–4.26 | 2.43 1.34–3.53 1.05–3.81 | 5.23 2.98–7.49 2.39–8.08 | 47% 18% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.37 1.20–5.55 0.64–6.11 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.28 | 3.84 2.29–5.40 1.86–5.82 | 6.29 3.30–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+