Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.112.70safe0.63–2.560.26–1.960.88–4.53safer0.37–2.810.03–2.190.40–5.01
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.404.119.51safe3.53–7.262.37–5.865.90–13.11safer3.04–7.751.91–6.324.95–14.07
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction17.1512.2829.43safe13.23–21.088.71–15.8421.94–36.91safer12.13–22.177.75–16.8019.89–38.96
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.948.2619.20safe7.99–13.885.58–10.9413.57–24.82safer7.16–14.714.84–11.6812.01–26.39
Blocked shots
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.753.498.24safe2.87–6.631.84–5.154.71–11.78safer2.32–7.171.35–5.643.67–12.81
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.444.2810.73safe4.23–8.662.28–6.286.51–14.94safer3.66–9.231.75–6.815.41–16.05
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.2550.34safe42.46–56.0443.56–57.13safer40.79–57.7141.89–58.80
Passes
47%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction460467927safe393–527401–534794–1061safer375–545383–551758–1097
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction69.8674.33safe65.83–73.8970.01–78.66safer64.54–75.1868.70–79.97
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9910.8321.82safe8.15–13.827.89–13.7816.04–27.60safer7.39–14.587.14–14.5314.53–29.11
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.333.12safe0.63–2.950.24–2.430.87–5.38safer0.33–3.250.00–2.720.28–5.97
Yellow cards
29%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.023.55safe0.48–2.580.89–3.151.37–5.73safer0.22–2.850.60–3.440.82–6.29
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
30%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.576.36safe1.35–4.232.02–5.133.37–9.35safer0.97–4.611.59–5.552.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.56 0.37–2.81 | 1.11 0.26–1.96 0.03–2.19 | 2.70 0.88–4.53 0.40–5.01 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.40 3.53–7.26 3.04–7.75 | 4.11 2.37–5.86 1.91–6.32 | 9.51 5.90–13.11 4.95–14.07 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 17.15 13.23–21.08 12.13–22.17 | 12.28 8.71–15.84 7.75–16.80 | 29.43 21.94–36.91 19.89–38.96 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.94 7.99–13.88 7.16–14.71 | 8.26 5.58–10.94 4.84–11.68 | 19.20 13.57–24.82 12.01–26.39 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 2.87–6.63 2.32–7.17 | 3.49 1.84–5.15 1.35–5.64 | 8.24 4.71–11.78 3.67–12.81 | 60% 27% |
| Corners | 6.44 4.23–8.66 3.66–9.23 | 4.28 2.28–6.28 1.75–6.81 | 10.73 6.51–14.94 5.41–16.05 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 49.25 42.46–56.04 40.79–57.71 | 50.34 43.56–57.13 41.89–58.80 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 460 393–527 375–545 | 467 401–534 383–551 | 927 794–1061 758–1097 | 47% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.86 65.83–73.89 64.54–75.18 | 74.33 70.01–78.66 68.70–79.97 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 10.99 8.15–13.82 7.39–14.58 | 10.83 7.89–13.78 7.14–14.53 | 21.82 16.04–27.60 14.53–29.11 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.33–3.25 | 1.33 0.24–2.43 0.00–2.72 | 3.12 0.87–5.38 0.28–5.97 | 48% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.22–2.85 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 29% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.23 0.97–4.61 | 3.57 2.02–5.13 1.59–5.55 | 6.36 3.37–9.35 2.56–10.17 | 30% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+