Premier League·Regular Season - 37·
Premier League·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.392.86safe0.50–2.430.54–2.251.04–4.68safer0.24–2.680.31–2.480.56–5.16
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.679.13safe2.59–6.322.93–6.425.53–12.74safer2.10–6.812.46–6.884.57–13.69
Total shots
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7814.1227.90safe9.86–17.7110.56–17.6820.42–35.39safer8.77–18.809.60–18.6418.37–37.44
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.669.6518.31safe5.72–11.616.97–12.3312.69–23.93safer4.89–12.446.23–13.0711.12–25.50
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.278.35safe2.20–5.962.62–5.934.82–11.89safer1.65–6.502.13–6.423.78–12.92
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.435.4210.85safe3.22–7.643.42–7.426.63–15.06safer2.64–8.222.88–7.955.53–16.17
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction49.9649.89safe43.17–56.7543.11–56.68safer41.50–58.4241.43–58.35
Passes
63%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction473432905safe406–540365–498771–1038safer387–558348–516735–1074
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction69.2873.13safe65.25–73.3168.81–77.45safer63.96–74.6067.50–78.76
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8411.2521.09safe7.01–12.688.30–14.1915.31–26.87safer6.25–13.447.55–14.9413.80–28.38
Offsides
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.773.15safe0.21–2.540.68–2.870.90–5.40safer0.00–2.840.39–3.160.31–5.99
Yellow cards
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.532.98safe0.40–2.500.40–2.660.80–5.16safer0.13–2.760.11–2.950.24–5.71
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.795.69safe1.47–4.341.23–4.342.70–8.68safer1.08–4.730.81–4.771.89–9.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.50–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 2.86 1.04–4.68 0.56–5.16 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.59–6.32 2.10–6.81 | 4.67 2.93–6.42 2.46–6.88 | 9.13 5.53–12.74 4.57–13.69 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Total shots | 13.78 9.86–17.71 8.77–18.80 | 14.12 10.56–17.68 9.60–18.64 | 27.90 20.42–35.39 18.37–37.44 | 44% 49% |
| Shots in box | 8.66 5.72–11.61 4.89–12.44 | 9.65 6.97–12.33 6.23–13.07 | 18.31 12.69–23.93 11.12–25.50 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 2.20–5.96 1.65–6.50 | 4.27 2.62–5.93 2.13–6.42 | 8.35 4.82–11.89 3.78–12.92 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.64 2.64–8.22 | 5.42 3.42–7.42 2.88–7.95 | 10.85 6.63–15.06 5.53–16.17 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 49.96 43.17–56.75 41.50–58.42 | 49.89 43.11–56.68 41.43–58.35 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 473 406–540 387–558 | 432 365–498 348–516 | 905 771–1038 735–1074 | 63% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.28 65.25–73.31 63.96–74.60 | 73.13 68.81–77.45 67.50–78.76 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 9.84 7.01–12.68 6.25–13.44 | 11.25 8.30–14.19 7.55–14.94 | 21.09 15.31–26.87 13.80–28.38 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.77 0.68–2.87 0.39–3.16 | 3.15 0.90–5.40 0.31–5.99 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.13–2.76 | 1.53 0.40–2.66 0.11–2.95 | 2.98 0.80–5.16 0.24–5.71 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 2.79 1.23–4.34 0.81–4.77 | 5.69 2.70–8.68 1.89–9.50 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.