Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.332.57safe0.27–2.210.48–2.190.75–4.39safer0.02–2.460.25–2.410.27–4.87
Shots on target
37%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.244.718.94safe2.37–6.102.97–6.455.34–12.55safer1.88–6.592.50–6.924.38–13.50
Total shots
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5513.7826.33safe8.63–16.4810.22–17.3418.85–33.82safer7.54–17.579.26–18.3016.80–35.87
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction8.029.4117.43safe5.08–10.976.73–12.0911.81–23.05safer4.25–11.795.99–12.8310.24–24.62
Blocked shots
35%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.454.017.46safe1.56–5.332.36–5.663.92–10.99safer1.02–5.871.87–6.162.89–12.03
Corners
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.875.009.86safe2.65–7.083.00–7.005.65–14.08safer2.08–7.652.46–7.534.54–15.18
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.8648.71safe45.07–58.6541.92–55.49safer43.40–60.3240.25–57.16
Passes
63%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction452410862safe385–519344–477729–996safer367–537326–494693–1032
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction69.2170.52safe65.18–73.2466.19–74.84safer63.89–74.5464.89–76.15
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7613.1324.90safe8.93–14.6010.19–16.0819.12–30.68safer8.17–15.369.44–16.8317.61–32.18
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.913.61safe0.55–2.870.81–3.001.36–5.87safer0.25–3.170.53–3.290.77–6.46
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.264.24safe0.93–3.031.13–3.392.06–6.42safer0.67–3.300.84–3.681.51–6.98
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.382.946.32safe1.94–4.821.38–4.503.33–9.31safer1.56–5.200.96–4.922.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.33 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.41 | 2.57 0.75–4.39 0.27–4.87 | 35% 27% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.24 2.37–6.10 1.88–6.59 | 4.71 2.97–6.45 2.50–6.92 | 8.94 5.34–12.55 4.38–13.50 | 37% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.55 8.63–16.48 7.54–17.57 | 13.78 10.22–17.34 9.26–18.30 | 26.33 18.85–33.82 16.80–35.87 | 37% 56% |
| Shots in box | 8.02 5.08–10.97 4.25–11.79 | 9.41 6.73–12.09 5.99–12.83 | 17.43 11.81–23.05 10.24–24.62 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.45 1.56–5.33 1.02–5.87 | 4.01 2.36–5.66 1.87–6.16 | 7.46 3.92–10.99 2.89–12.03 | 35% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.87 2.65–7.08 2.08–7.65 | 5.00 3.00–7.00 2.46–7.53 | 9.86 5.65–14.08 4.54–15.18 | 42% 45% |
| Possession % | 51.86 45.07–58.65 43.40–60.32 | 48.71 41.92–55.49 40.25–57.16 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 452 385–519 367–537 | 410 344–477 326–494 | 862 729–996 693–1032 | 63% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.21 65.18–73.24 63.89–74.54 | 70.52 66.19–74.84 64.89–76.15 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 11.76 8.93–14.60 8.17–15.36 | 13.13 10.19–16.08 9.44–16.83 | 24.90 19.12–30.68 17.61–32.18 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.91 0.81–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.61 1.36–5.87 0.77–6.46 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.67–3.30 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.24 2.06–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.38 1.94–4.82 1.56–5.20 | 2.94 1.38–4.50 0.96–4.92 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.52–10.13 | 49% 16% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.