Premier League·Regular Season - 37·
Premier League·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.142.66safe0.55–2.490.29–2.000.84–4.48safer0.30–2.740.06–2.230.36–4.96
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.129.21safe3.23–6.962.38–5.865.61–12.82safer2.74–7.451.91–6.334.65–13.77
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1411.8828.02safe12.22–20.078.31–15.4420.53–35.51safer11.13–21.167.35–16.4018.48–37.56
Shots in box
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.687.8418.52safe7.74–13.625.16–10.5212.90–24.14safer6.91–14.454.42–11.2611.33–25.71
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.063.088.14safe3.18–6.941.43–4.744.61–11.68safer2.63–7.480.94–5.233.57–12.71
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.054.2310.28safe3.84–8.262.23–6.236.07–14.49safer3.26–8.841.69–6.764.96–15.60
Possession %
50%
46%
homeawayprediction50.4349.57safe43.64–57.2242.78–56.35safer41.97–58.8941.11–58.02
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction440425865safe373–507358–491731–999safer355–526341–509696–1034
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction70.6571.75safe66.62–74.6867.43–76.08safer65.33–75.9766.12–77.39
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9211.5823.50safe9.08–14.768.63–14.5217.72–29.28safer8.33–15.527.88–15.2716.21–30.79
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.703.43safe0.56–2.890.61–2.801.17–5.68safer0.26–3.190.32–3.080.58–6.27
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.963.75safe0.74–2.840.83–3.091.57–5.93safer0.48–3.110.54–3.381.02–6.49
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.456.02safe1.14–4.011.89–5.013.03–9.02safer0.75–4.401.47–5.432.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.14 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.36–4.96 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.09 3.23–6.96 2.74–7.45 | 4.12 2.38–5.86 1.91–6.33 | 9.21 5.61–12.82 4.65–13.77 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 16.14 12.22–20.07 11.13–21.16 | 11.88 8.31–15.44 7.35–16.40 | 28.02 20.53–35.51 18.48–37.56 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.68 7.74–13.62 6.91–14.45 | 7.84 5.16–10.52 4.42–11.26 | 18.52 12.90–24.14 11.33–25.71 | 71% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 5.06 3.18–6.94 2.63–7.48 | 3.08 1.43–4.74 0.94–5.23 | 8.14 4.61–11.68 3.57–12.71 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.05 3.84–8.26 3.26–8.84 | 4.23 2.23–6.23 1.69–6.76 | 10.28 6.07–14.49 4.96–15.60 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 50.43 43.64–57.22 41.97–58.89 | 49.57 42.78–56.35 41.11–58.02 | — | 50% 46% |
| Passes | 440 373–507 355–526 | 425 358–491 341–509 | 865 731–999 696–1034 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.65 66.62–74.68 65.33–75.97 | 71.75 67.43–76.08 66.12–77.39 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 11.92 9.08–14.76 8.33–15.52 | 11.58 8.63–14.52 7.88–15.27 | 23.50 17.72–29.28 16.21–30.79 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.89 0.26–3.19 | 1.70 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.08 | 3.43 1.17–5.68 0.58–6.27 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.48–3.11 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.02–6.49 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.45 1.89–5.01 1.47–5.43 | 6.02 3.03–9.02 2.22–9.83 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.