Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.102.92safe0.85–2.790.25–1.951.10–4.74safer0.60–3.040.02–2.180.62–5.22
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.923.919.84safe4.06–7.792.17–5.666.23–13.44safer3.57–8.281.70–6.125.28–14.40
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4511.6427.09safe11.52–19.378.08–15.2019.60–34.58safer10.43–20.467.12–16.1617.55–36.63
Shots in box
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.137.3617.50safe7.19–13.084.68–10.0411.87–23.12safer6.36–13.913.94–10.7810.31–24.69
Blocked shots
57%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.473.487.95safe2.59–6.351.83–5.144.42–11.49safer2.04–6.891.34–5.633.38–12.52
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.104.0710.16safe3.88–8.312.07–6.075.95–14.38safer3.31–8.881.53–6.604.84–15.48
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction58.1642.52safe51.37–64.9535.74–49.31safer49.70–66.6234.07–50.98
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction537393929safe469–604326–459795–1063safer451–622309–477760–1098
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction74.3171.13safe70.28–78.3466.80–75.45safer68.99–79.6465.50–76.76
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0411.9823.02safe8.20–13.889.03–14.9217.24–28.80safer7.45–14.648.28–15.6715.73–30.31
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.683.33safe0.48–2.800.59–2.781.07–5.58safer0.18–3.100.30–3.070.48–6.17
Yellow cards
28%
19%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.414.13safe0.68–2.771.28–3.541.96–6.31safer0.41–3.040.99–3.831.40–6.87
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.636.34safe1.28–4.152.07–5.183.35–9.33safer0.89–4.541.64–5.612.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.82 0.85–2.79 0.60–3.04 | 1.10 0.25–1.95 0.02–2.18 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.62–5.22 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.92 4.06–7.79 3.57–8.28 | 3.91 2.17–5.66 1.70–6.12 | 9.84 6.23–13.44 5.28–14.40 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.45 11.52–19.37 10.43–20.46 | 11.64 8.08–15.20 7.12–16.16 | 27.09 19.60–34.58 17.55–36.63 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 10.13 7.19–13.08 6.36–13.91 | 7.36 4.68–10.04 3.94–10.78 | 17.50 11.87–23.12 10.31–24.69 | 71% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 2.59–6.35 2.04–6.89 | 3.48 1.83–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 7.95 4.42–11.49 3.38–12.52 | 57% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 6.10 3.88–8.31 3.31–8.88 | 4.07 2.07–6.07 1.53–6.60 | 10.16 5.95–14.38 4.84–15.48 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 58.16 51.37–64.95 49.70–66.62 | 42.52 35.74–49.31 34.07–50.98 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 537 469–604 451–622 | 393 326–459 309–477 | 929 795–1063 760–1098 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.31 70.28–78.34 68.99–79.64 | 71.13 66.80–75.45 65.50–76.76 | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 11.04 8.20–13.88 7.45–14.64 | 11.98 9.03–14.92 8.28–15.67 | 23.02 17.24–28.80 15.73–30.31 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.07 | 3.33 1.07–5.58 0.48–6.17 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.77 0.41–3.04 | 2.41 1.28–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.13 1.96–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 28% 19% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 3.63 2.07–5.18 1.64–5.61 | 6.34 3.35–9.33 2.54–10.15 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+