Premier League·Regular Season - 35·
Premier League·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.713.06safe0.39–2.320.85–2.561.24–4.88safer0.14–2.570.62–2.790.76–5.36
Shots on target
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.384.739.11safe2.52–6.252.99–6.475.51–12.72safer2.03–6.742.52–6.944.55–13.67
Total shots
49%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7613.4527.21safe9.84–17.699.88–17.0119.72–34.70safer8.75–18.788.92–17.9717.67–36.75
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction8.398.8417.22safe5.44–11.336.15–11.5211.60–22.85safer4.61–12.165.42–12.2510.03–24.41
Blocked shots
42%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.094.128.21safe2.21–5.972.47–5.784.68–11.75safer1.66–6.511.98–6.273.64–12.78
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.025.2410.26safe2.81–7.233.24–7.246.05–14.47safer2.23–7.812.71–7.774.94–15.58
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.1754.82safe38.38–51.9648.04–61.60safer36.71–53.6346.36–63.28
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction425501925safe357–492434–567792–1059safer339–510417–585756–1095
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction68.0176.58safe63.98–72.0472.25–80.90safer62.69–73.3470.94–82.21
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6610.6321.29safe7.83–13.507.68–13.5715.51–27.07safer7.07–14.266.94–14.3214.00–28.58
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.493.27safe0.62–2.940.39–2.581.01–5.52safer0.32–3.240.10–2.870.42–6.11
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.913.82safe0.86–2.950.78–3.041.64–6.00safer0.59–3.220.49–3.331.08–6.55
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.19safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.430.00–0.400.00–0.82
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.966.30safe1.91–4.781.40–4.513.31–9.29safer1.52–5.170.98–4.942.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.57 | 1.71 0.85–2.56 0.62–2.79 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 31% 24% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.25 2.03–6.74 | 4.73 2.99–6.47 2.52–6.94 | 9.11 5.51–12.72 4.55–13.67 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.76 9.84–17.69 8.75–18.78 | 13.45 9.88–17.01 8.92–17.97 | 27.21 19.72–34.70 17.67–36.75 | 49% 44% |
| Shots in box | 8.39 5.44–11.33 4.61–12.16 | 8.84 6.15–11.52 5.42–12.25 | 17.22 11.60–22.85 10.03–24.41 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 2.21–5.97 1.66–6.51 | 4.12 2.47–5.78 1.98–6.27 | 8.21 4.68–11.75 3.64–12.78 | 42% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.81–7.23 2.23–7.81 | 5.24 3.24–7.24 2.71–7.77 | 10.26 6.05–14.47 4.94–15.58 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 45.17 38.38–51.96 36.71–53.63 | 54.82 48.04–61.60 46.36–63.28 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 425 357–492 339–510 | 501 434–567 417–585 | 925 792–1059 756–1095 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.01 63.98–72.04 62.69–73.34 | 76.58 72.25–80.90 70.94–82.21 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 10.66 7.83–13.50 7.07–14.26 | 10.63 7.68–13.57 6.94–14.32 | 21.29 15.51–27.07 14.00–28.58 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 1.49 0.39–2.58 0.10–2.87 | 3.27 1.01–5.52 0.42–6.11 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.86–2.95 0.59–3.22 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.91–4.78 1.52–5.17 | 2.96 1.40–4.51 0.98–4.94 | 6.30 3.31–9.29 2.50–10.11 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.