Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
28%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.202.37safe0.21–2.140.35–2.060.55–4.20safer0.00–2.390.12–2.280.07–4.68
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.917.96safe2.19–5.922.17–5.654.36–11.57safer1.70–6.411.70–6.123.40–12.52
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6811.3123.99safe8.75–16.607.75–14.8716.50–31.47safer7.66–17.696.79–15.8314.45–33.53
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.977.9915.96safe5.03–10.925.31–10.6710.34–21.58safer4.20–11.754.57–11.408.77–23.15
Blocked shots
45%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.843.707.53safe1.96–5.722.04–5.354.00–11.07safer1.41–6.261.55–5.842.96–12.10
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.404.7410.13safe3.18–7.612.74–6.745.92–14.35safer2.61–8.182.21–7.274.81–15.45
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction47.5353.52safe40.74–54.3246.73–60.30safer39.07–55.9945.06–61.97
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction391430821safe324–458364–497688–955safer306–476346–514652–991
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction66.0071.31safe61.97–70.0366.99–75.64safer60.68–71.3265.68–76.94
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4412.3624.80safe9.60–15.289.41–15.3019.02–30.58safer8.85–16.038.67–16.0517.51–32.09
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.363.28safe0.77–3.090.26–2.451.03–5.54safer0.47–3.390.00–2.740.44–6.13
Yellow cards
37%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.104.07safe0.92–3.020.97–3.231.89–6.25safer0.66–3.290.68–3.521.33–6.80
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.815.29safe1.05–3.921.25–4.372.30–8.28safer0.66–4.310.83–4.791.49–9.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.28 | 2.37 0.55–4.20 0.07–4.68 | 35% 28% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.92 1.70–6.41 | 3.91 2.17–5.65 1.70–6.12 | 7.96 4.36–11.57 3.40–12.52 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 12.68 8.75–16.60 7.66–17.69 | 11.31 7.75–14.87 6.79–15.83 | 23.99 16.50–31.47 14.45–33.53 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 7.97 5.03–10.92 4.20–11.75 | 7.99 5.31–10.67 4.57–11.40 | 15.96 10.34–21.58 8.77–23.15 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 1.96–5.72 1.41–6.26 | 3.70 2.04–5.35 1.55–5.84 | 7.53 4.00–11.07 2.96–12.10 | 45% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.40 3.18–7.61 2.61–8.18 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.21–7.27 | 10.13 5.92–14.35 4.81–15.45 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 47.53 40.74–54.32 39.07–55.99 | 53.52 46.73–60.30 45.06–61.97 | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 391 324–458 306–476 | 430 364–497 346–514 | 821 688–955 652–991 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.00 61.97–70.03 60.68–71.32 | 71.31 66.99–75.64 65.68–76.94 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.44 9.60–15.28 8.85–16.03 | 12.36 9.41–15.30 8.67–16.05 | 24.80 19.02–30.58 17.51–32.09 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.28 1.03–5.54 0.44–6.13 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.07 1.89–6.25 1.33–6.80 | 37% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.05–3.92 0.66–4.31 | 2.81 1.25–4.37 0.83–4.79 | 5.29 2.30–8.28 1.49–9.10 | 36% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.