Premier League·Regular Season - 37·
Premier League·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.132.62safe0.52–2.450.28–1.990.80–4.44safer0.27–2.710.05–2.210.32–4.92
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.314.028.33safe2.45–6.172.28–5.764.73–11.94safer1.96–6.661.81–6.233.77–12.89
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1411.9026.04safe10.21–18.068.33–15.4618.55–33.52safer9.12–19.167.38–16.4216.50–35.57
Shots in box
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.048.2817.32safe6.10–11.995.59–10.9611.70–22.94safer5.27–12.824.86–11.6910.13–24.51
Blocked shots
51%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.487.53safe2.17–5.931.83–5.144.00–11.07safer1.63–6.481.34–5.632.96–12.11
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.6610.40safe3.53–7.962.66–6.666.19–14.61safer2.95–8.532.12–7.195.08–15.72
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.3845.53safe46.59–60.1738.74–52.31safer44.92–61.8437.07–53.99
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction448374822safe381–515308–441688–955safer362–533290–458652–991
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction69.4368.91safe65.40–73.4664.58–73.23safer64.11–74.7563.27–74.54
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0111.9723.98safe9.18–14.859.02–14.9118.20–29.76safer8.42–15.618.28–15.6616.70–31.27
Offsides
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.372.013.38safe0.21–2.530.92–3.111.13–5.63safer0.00–2.830.63–3.390.54–6.22
Yellow cards
27%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.193.75safe0.50–2.601.06–3.321.57–5.92safer0.24–2.870.77–3.611.01–6.48
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.945.62safe1.24–4.111.39–4.502.63–8.61safer0.85–4.500.96–4.931.82–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.45 0.27–2.71 | 1.13 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.21 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.31 2.45–6.17 1.96–6.66 | 4.02 2.28–5.76 1.81–6.23 | 8.33 4.73–11.94 3.77–12.89 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.14 10.21–18.06 9.12–19.16 | 11.90 8.33–15.46 7.38–16.42 | 26.04 18.55–33.52 16.50–35.57 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 9.04 6.10–11.99 5.27–12.82 | 8.28 5.59–10.96 4.86–11.69 | 17.32 11.70–22.94 10.13–24.51 | 53% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.63–6.48 | 3.48 1.83–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 7.53 4.00–11.07 2.96–12.11 | 51% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.96 2.95–8.53 | 4.66 2.66–6.66 2.12–7.19 | 10.40 6.19–14.61 5.08–15.72 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 53.38 46.59–60.17 44.92–61.84 | 45.53 38.74–52.31 37.07–53.99 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 448 381–515 362–533 | 374 308–441 290–458 | 822 688–955 652–991 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.43 65.40–73.46 64.11–74.75 | 68.91 64.58–73.23 63.27–74.54 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 12.01 9.18–14.85 8.42–15.61 | 11.97 9.02–14.91 8.28–15.66 | 23.98 18.20–29.76 16.70–31.27 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.83 | 2.01 0.92–3.11 0.63–3.39 | 3.38 1.13–5.63 0.54–6.22 | 26% 22% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 3.75 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 27% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.11 0.85–4.50 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.93 | 5.62 2.63–8.61 1.82–9.43 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.