Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.143.03safe0.92–2.860.28–1.991.21–4.85safer0.67–3.110.06–2.220.73–5.33
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.634.349.98safe3.77–7.502.60–6.096.37–13.58safer3.28–7.992.14–6.555.42–14.54
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9211.0927.00safe11.99–19.847.53–14.6519.52–34.49safer10.90–20.936.57–15.6117.47–36.54
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction11.188.0319.21safe8.23–14.125.35–10.7113.59–24.83safer7.40–14.954.61–11.4512.02–26.40
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.452.587.03safe2.57–6.330.93–4.243.50–10.57safer2.02–6.870.44–4.732.46–11.60
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.034.1810.21safe3.82–8.252.18–6.186.00–14.42safer3.25–8.821.64–6.714.89–15.53
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction52.0347.71safe45.24–58.8240.93–54.50safer43.57–60.4939.26–56.17
Passes
62%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction497458954safe429–564391–524821–1088safer411–582374–542785–1124
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction74.6172.83safe70.58–78.6468.50–77.15safer69.29–79.9367.19–78.46
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3811.2121.59safe7.54–13.228.27–14.1615.81–27.37safer6.79–13.977.52–14.9114.31–28.88
Offsides
27%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.894.92safe0.87–3.191.80–3.982.66–7.17safer0.57–3.491.51–4.272.07–7.76
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.333.78safe0.40–2.501.21–3.461.60–5.96safer0.13–2.760.91–3.751.05–6.52
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.626.37safe1.31–4.182.07–5.183.38–9.36safer0.92–4.571.64–5.602.57–10.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.89 0.92–2.86 0.67–3.11 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.06–2.22 | 3.03 1.21–4.85 0.73–5.33 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.63 3.77–7.50 3.28–7.99 | 4.34 2.60–6.09 2.14–6.55 | 9.98 6.37–13.58 5.42–14.54 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.92 11.99–19.84 10.90–20.93 | 11.09 7.53–14.65 6.57–15.61 | 27.00 19.52–34.49 17.47–36.54 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 11.18 8.23–14.12 7.40–14.95 | 8.03 5.35–10.71 4.61–11.45 | 19.21 13.59–24.83 12.02–26.40 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.45 2.57–6.33 2.02–6.87 | 2.58 0.93–4.24 0.44–4.73 | 7.03 3.50–10.57 2.46–11.60 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.03 3.82–8.25 3.25–8.82 | 4.18 2.18–6.18 1.64–6.71 | 10.21 6.00–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 52.03 45.24–58.82 43.57–60.49 | 47.71 40.93–54.50 39.26–56.17 | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 497 429–564 411–582 | 458 391–524 374–542 | 954 821–1088 785–1124 | 62% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.61 70.58–78.64 69.29–79.93 | 72.83 68.50–77.15 67.19–78.46 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 10.38 7.54–13.22 6.79–13.97 | 11.21 8.27–14.16 7.52–14.91 | 21.59 15.81–27.37 14.31–28.88 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 2.89 1.80–3.98 1.51–4.27 | 4.92 2.66–7.17 2.07–7.76 | 27% 17% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.13–2.76 | 2.33 1.21–3.46 0.91–3.75 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.05–6.52 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.31–4.18 0.92–4.57 | 3.62 2.07–5.18 1.64–5.60 | 6.37 3.38–9.36 2.57–10.18 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.