Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.612.92safe0.35–2.290.75–2.461.10–4.75safer0.10–2.540.52–2.690.62–5.23
Shots on target
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.424.829.24safe2.56–6.283.08–6.575.64–12.85safer2.07–6.772.61–7.034.68–13.80
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2213.8727.09safe9.30–17.1510.31–17.4319.60–34.58safer8.21–18.249.35–18.3917.55–36.63
Shots in box
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.499.5118.01safe5.55–11.436.83–12.2012.38–23.63safer4.72–12.266.10–12.9310.82–25.20
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.594.157.74safe1.71–5.482.50–5.804.21–11.28safer1.17–6.022.00–6.293.17–12.31
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.944.729.67safe2.73–7.162.72–6.725.45–13.88safer2.16–7.732.19–7.264.35–14.99
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.6850.00safe43.89–57.4743.21–56.78safer42.22–59.1441.54–58.45
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction492477970safe425–560411–544836–1103safer407–578393–561800–1139
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction71.8575.35safe67.82–75.8871.02–79.67safer66.53–77.1769.71–80.98
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3211.3222.64safe8.48–14.168.37–14.2616.86–28.42safer7.73–14.917.63–15.0115.35–29.93
Offsides
50%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.521.994.51safe1.36–3.680.90–3.082.25–6.76safer1.06–3.980.61–3.371.66–7.35
Yellow cards
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.663.55safe0.84–2.940.53–2.791.37–5.73safer0.57–3.200.24–3.080.82–6.29
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.945.96safe1.58–4.451.39–4.502.97–8.95safer1.19–4.840.96–4.922.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.61 0.75–2.46 0.52–2.69 | 2.92 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 31% 24% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.28 2.07–6.77 | 4.82 3.08–6.57 2.61–7.03 | 9.24 5.64–12.85 4.68–13.80 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.22 9.30–17.15 8.21–18.24 | 13.87 10.31–17.43 9.35–18.39 | 27.09 19.60–34.58 17.55–36.63 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 8.49 5.55–11.43 4.72–12.26 | 9.51 6.83–12.20 6.10–12.93 | 18.01 12.38–23.63 10.82–25.20 | 36% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.59 1.71–5.48 1.17–6.02 | 4.15 2.50–5.80 2.00–6.29 | 7.74 4.21–11.28 3.17–12.31 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 4.94 2.73–7.16 2.16–7.73 | 4.72 2.72–6.72 2.19–7.26 | 9.67 5.45–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 50.68 43.89–57.47 42.22–59.14 | 50.00 43.21–56.78 41.54–58.45 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 492 425–560 407–578 | 477 411–544 393–561 | 970 836–1103 800–1139 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.85 67.82–75.88 66.53–77.17 | 75.35 71.02–79.67 69.71–80.98 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 11.32 8.48–14.16 7.73–14.91 | 11.32 8.37–14.26 7.63–15.01 | 22.64 16.86–28.42 15.35–29.93 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.52 1.36–3.68 1.06–3.98 | 1.99 0.90–3.08 0.61–3.37 | 4.51 2.25–6.76 1.66–7.35 | 50% 19% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.94 0.57–3.20 | 1.66 0.53–2.79 0.24–3.08 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.58–4.45 1.19–4.84 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.92 | 5.96 2.97–8.95 2.16–9.77 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.