Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.162.62safe0.50–2.430.30–2.010.80–4.45safer0.25–2.690.07–2.240.32–4.92
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.873.588.46safe3.01–6.741.84–5.324.85–12.06safer2.52–7.231.37–5.793.90–13.02
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8710.8825.75safe10.94–18.797.32–14.4418.26–33.23safer9.85–19.886.36–15.4016.21–35.28
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.777.5816.35safe5.82–11.714.90–10.2610.72–21.97safer5.00–12.544.16–11.009.16–23.54
Blocked shots
58%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.253.227.48safe2.37–6.141.57–4.883.94–11.01safer1.83–6.681.08–5.372.91–12.05
Corners
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.754.4510.20safe3.53–7.962.45–6.455.99–14.41safer2.96–8.531.92–6.994.88–15.52
Possession %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction52.8748.44safe46.08–59.6641.66–55.23safer44.41–61.3339.99–56.90
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction460410871safe393–528344–477737–1004safer375–546326–494701–1040
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction67.7569.34safe63.72–71.7865.02–73.66safer62.43–73.0863.71–74.97
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7511.4323.18safe8.91–14.588.49–14.3817.39–28.96safer8.15–15.347.74–15.1215.89–30.46
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.633.82safe1.02–3.340.54–2.731.56–6.07safer0.72–3.640.25–3.020.97–6.66
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.304.22safe0.87–2.971.17–3.422.04–6.39safer0.60–3.240.88–3.721.48–6.95
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
29%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.423.205.62safe0.99–3.861.64–4.752.63–8.61safer0.60–4.251.22–5.181.82–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.43 0.25–2.69 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.92 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.01–6.74 2.52–7.23 | 3.58 1.84–5.32 1.37–5.79 | 8.46 4.85–12.06 3.90–13.02 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.87 10.94–18.79 9.85–19.88 | 10.88 7.32–14.44 6.36–15.40 | 25.75 18.26–33.23 16.21–35.28 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 8.77 5.82–11.71 5.00–12.54 | 7.58 4.90–10.26 4.16–11.00 | 16.35 10.72–21.97 9.16–23.54 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 2.37–6.14 1.83–6.68 | 3.22 1.57–4.88 1.08–5.37 | 7.48 3.94–11.01 2.91–12.05 | 58% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 5.75 3.53–7.96 2.96–8.53 | 4.45 2.45–6.45 1.92–6.99 | 10.20 5.99–14.41 4.88–15.52 | 60% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.87 46.08–59.66 44.41–61.33 | 48.44 41.66–55.23 39.99–56.90 | — | 58% 37% |
| Passes | 460 393–528 375–546 | 410 344–477 326–494 | 871 737–1004 701–1040 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.75 63.72–71.78 62.43–73.08 | 69.34 65.02–73.66 63.71–74.97 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 11.75 8.91–14.58 8.15–15.34 | 11.43 8.49–14.38 7.74–15.12 | 23.18 17.39–28.96 15.89–30.46 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.72–3.64 | 1.63 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.02 | 3.82 1.56–6.07 0.97–6.66 | 50% 21% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.24 | 2.30 1.17–3.42 0.88–3.72 | 4.22 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.95 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.42 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 3.20 1.64–4.75 1.22–5.18 | 5.62 2.63–8.61 1.82–9.42 | 29% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.