Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.282.58safe0.33–2.270.43–2.130.76–4.40safer0.08–2.520.20–2.360.28–4.88
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.254.268.51safe2.39–6.112.52–6.004.91–12.12safer1.90–6.602.05–6.473.95–13.07
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1813.6626.85safe9.26–17.1110.10–17.2219.36–34.33safer8.17–18.209.14–18.1817.31–36.38
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction8.048.4416.48safe5.10–10.985.76–11.1210.85–22.10safer4.27–11.815.02–11.869.29–23.67
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.533.717.24safe1.65–5.412.05–5.363.70–10.77safer1.10–5.961.56–5.852.67–11.81
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.254.9910.24safe3.04–7.472.99–6.996.03–14.46safer2.47–8.042.46–7.534.92–15.57
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.3751.48safe41.58–55.1644.70–58.27safer39.91–56.8343.03–59.94
Passes
46%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction419430849safe352–486364–496715–983safer334–505346–514680–1019
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction66.1371.44safe62.10–70.1567.11–75.76safer60.80–71.4565.80–77.07
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7412.4224.16safe8.91–14.589.48–15.3718.38–29.95safer8.15–15.348.73–16.1116.88–31.45
Offsides
29%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.203.86safe0.50–2.821.11–3.301.61–6.11safer0.20–3.120.82–3.581.02–6.70
Yellow cards
31%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.223.99safe0.73–2.821.09–3.351.82–6.17safer0.46–3.090.80–3.641.26–6.73
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.695.64safe1.51–4.391.14–4.252.65–8.63safer1.13–4.770.71–4.671.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.28 0.43–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 37% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 4.26 2.52–6.00 2.05–6.47 | 8.51 4.91–12.12 3.95–13.07 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.18 9.26–17.11 8.17–18.20 | 13.66 10.10–17.22 9.14–18.18 | 26.85 19.36–34.33 17.31–36.38 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.04 5.10–10.98 4.27–11.81 | 8.44 5.76–11.12 5.02–11.86 | 16.48 10.85–22.10 9.29–23.67 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.41 1.10–5.96 | 3.71 2.05–5.36 1.56–5.85 | 7.24 3.70–10.77 2.67–11.81 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.25 3.04–7.47 2.47–8.04 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.46–7.53 | 10.24 6.03–14.46 4.92–15.57 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 48.37 41.58–55.16 39.91–56.83 | 51.48 44.70–58.27 43.03–59.94 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 419 352–486 334–505 | 430 364–496 346–514 | 849 715–983 680–1019 | 46% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.13 62.10–70.15 60.80–71.45 | 71.44 67.11–75.76 65.80–77.07 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.91–14.58 8.15–15.34 | 12.42 9.48–15.37 8.73–16.11 | 24.16 18.38–29.95 16.88–31.45 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 2.20 1.11–3.30 0.82–3.58 | 3.86 1.61–6.11 1.02–6.70 | 29% 20% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.73–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 2.22 1.09–3.35 0.80–3.64 | 3.99 1.82–6.17 1.26–6.73 | 31% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.51–4.39 1.13–4.77 | 2.69 1.14–4.25 0.71–4.67 | 5.64 2.65–8.63 1.84–9.45 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+