Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.222.48safe0.30–2.230.36–2.070.66–4.31safer0.05–2.480.14–2.300.18–4.79
Shots on target
43%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.254.298.54safe2.39–6.112.55–6.034.94–12.15safer1.90–6.602.08–6.503.98–13.10
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1612.4425.61safe9.24–17.098.88–16.0018.12–33.09safer8.15–18.187.92–16.9616.07–35.14
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.658.4117.05safe5.70–11.595.73–11.0911.43–22.68safer4.87–12.424.99–11.839.86–24.24
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.693.457.14safe1.81–5.581.79–5.103.61–10.68safer1.27–6.121.30–5.592.57–11.71
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.8910.15safe3.05–7.482.89–6.895.94–14.37safer2.48–8.052.35–7.424.83–15.47
Possession %
55%
41%
homeawayprediction51.8448.82safe45.05–58.6342.03–55.60safer43.38–60.3040.36–57.27
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction422390812safe355–489324–457678–946safer336–507306–474643–981
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction65.9468.44safe61.91–69.9764.11–72.76safer60.61–71.2662.81–74.07
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5011.9023.40safe8.66–14.348.96–14.8517.62–29.18safer7.91–15.098.21–15.6016.12–30.69
Offsides
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.273.99safe0.56–2.881.18–3.361.73–6.24safer0.26–3.180.89–3.651.15–6.83
Yellow cards
33%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.133.89safe0.72–2.811.00–3.251.71–6.07safer0.45–3.080.70–3.551.15–6.63
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.056.00safe1.52–4.401.49–4.603.01–9.00safer1.14–4.781.06–5.032.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.23 0.05–2.48 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.14–2.30 | 2.48 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 4.29 2.55–6.03 2.08–6.50 | 8.54 4.94–12.15 3.98–13.10 | 43% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.16 9.24–17.09 8.15–18.18 | 12.44 8.88–16.00 7.92–16.96 | 25.61 18.12–33.09 16.07–35.14 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.65 5.70–11.59 4.87–12.42 | 8.41 5.73–11.09 4.99–11.83 | 17.05 11.43–22.68 9.86–24.24 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 1.81–5.58 1.27–6.12 | 3.45 1.79–5.10 1.30–5.59 | 7.14 3.61–10.68 2.57–11.71 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 4.89 2.89–6.89 2.35–7.42 | 10.15 5.94–14.37 4.83–15.47 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 51.84 45.05–58.63 43.38–60.30 | 48.82 42.03–55.60 40.36–57.27 | — | 55% 41% |
| Passes | 422 355–489 336–507 | 390 324–457 306–474 | 812 678–946 643–981 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.94 61.91–69.97 60.61–71.26 | 68.44 64.11–72.76 62.81–74.07 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 11.50 8.66–14.34 7.91–15.09 | 11.90 8.96–14.85 8.21–15.60 | 23.40 17.62–29.18 16.12–30.69 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.26–3.18 | 2.27 1.18–3.36 0.89–3.65 | 3.99 1.73–6.24 1.15–6.83 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 2.13 1.00–3.25 0.70–3.55 | 3.89 1.71–6.07 1.15–6.63 | 33% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.40 1.14–4.78 | 3.05 1.49–4.60 1.06–5.03 | 6.00 3.01–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.