Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.132.53safe0.43–2.370.28–1.980.71–4.35safer0.18–2.620.05–2.210.23–4.83
Shots on target
55%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.703.798.50safe2.84–6.572.05–5.544.89–12.10safer2.35–7.061.58–6.003.94–13.06
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2410.8726.11safe11.32–19.177.31–14.4318.63–33.60safer10.23–20.266.35–15.3916.58–35.65
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.447.5717.01safe6.50–12.384.89–10.2511.39–22.63safer5.67–13.214.15–10.999.82–24.20
Blocked shots
60%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.653.408.05safe2.77–6.531.75–5.054.52–11.59safer2.22–7.081.26–5.553.48–12.62
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.834.5110.34safe3.62–8.042.51–6.516.12–14.55safer3.04–8.621.98–7.045.02–15.66
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction49.7150.05safe42.92–56.5043.26–56.83safer41.25–58.1741.59–58.50
Passes
52%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction411404816safe344–479338–471682–949safer326–497320–488646–985
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction66.4168.65safe62.38–70.4464.33–72.98safer61.09–71.7363.02–74.28
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9811.9122.89safe8.14–13.828.97–14.8617.11–28.67safer7.39–14.578.22–15.6115.61–30.18
Offsides
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.763.81safe0.88–3.200.67–2.861.55–6.06safer0.58–3.510.38–3.140.96–6.65
Yellow cards
30%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.013.56safe0.50–2.600.88–3.141.38–5.73safer0.23–2.860.59–3.430.82–6.29
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.275.74safe1.03–3.911.72–4.832.75–8.74safer0.65–4.291.29–5.251.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.13 0.28–1.98 0.05–2.21 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.84–6.57 2.35–7.06 | 3.79 2.05–5.54 1.58–6.00 | 8.50 4.89–12.10 3.94–13.06 | 55% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 15.24 11.32–19.17 10.23–20.26 | 10.87 7.31–14.43 6.35–15.39 | 26.11 18.63–33.60 16.58–35.65 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.44 6.50–12.38 5.67–13.21 | 7.57 4.89–10.25 4.15–10.99 | 17.01 11.39–22.63 9.82–24.20 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.77–6.53 2.22–7.08 | 3.40 1.75–5.05 1.26–5.55 | 8.05 4.52–11.59 3.48–12.62 | 60% 13% 27% |
| Corners | 5.83 3.62–8.04 3.04–8.62 | 4.51 2.51–6.51 1.98–7.04 | 10.34 6.12–14.55 5.02–15.66 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 49.71 42.92–56.50 41.25–58.17 | 50.05 43.26–56.83 41.59–58.50 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 411 344–479 326–497 | 404 338–471 320–488 | 816 682–949 646–985 | 52% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.41 62.38–70.44 61.09–71.73 | 68.65 64.33–72.98 63.02–74.28 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 10.98 8.14–13.82 7.39–14.57 | 11.91 8.97–14.86 8.22–15.61 | 22.89 17.11–28.67 15.61–30.18 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.51 | 1.76 0.67–2.86 0.38–3.14 | 3.81 1.55–6.06 0.96–6.65 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.23–2.86 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.56 1.38–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 30% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.03–3.91 0.65–4.29 | 3.27 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.25 | 5.74 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+