Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.452.97safe0.55–2.490.60–2.311.15–4.80safer0.30–2.740.37–2.540.67–5.28
Shots on target
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.514.839.34safe2.64–6.373.09–6.575.73–12.94safer2.15–6.862.62–7.044.78–13.90
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3413.5926.93safe9.42–17.2710.03–17.1519.44–34.42safer8.32–18.369.07–18.1117.39–36.47
Shots in box
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.898.9617.85safe5.95–11.836.28–11.6412.23–23.47safer5.12–12.665.54–12.3810.66–25.04
Blocked shots
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.294.108.38safe2.40–6.172.44–5.754.85–11.92safer1.86–6.711.95–6.243.81–12.95
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.8110.38safe3.36–7.782.81–6.816.16–14.59safer2.78–8.362.27–7.345.06–15.70
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction49.0551.09safe42.26–55.8444.31–57.88safer40.59–57.5142.63–59.55
Passes
48%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction478483961safe411–546416–549827–1095safer393–564399–567792–1130
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction71.4476.86safe67.41–75.4772.54–81.19safer66.12–76.7671.23–82.50
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8310.9220.75safe6.99–12.677.98–13.8714.97–26.53safer6.23–13.427.23–14.6213.47–28.04
Offsides
43%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.463.17safe0.54–2.860.37–2.560.91–5.42safer0.24–3.170.08–2.840.32–6.01
Yellow cards
38%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.094.10safe0.96–3.060.96–3.221.92–6.28safer0.69–3.320.67–3.511.36–6.84
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.976.34safe1.93–4.801.41–4.533.35–9.33safer1.54–5.190.99–4.952.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.45 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.54 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 39% 24% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.51 2.64–6.37 2.15–6.86 | 4.83 3.09–6.57 2.62–7.04 | 9.34 5.73–12.94 4.78–13.90 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.34 9.42–17.27 8.32–18.36 | 13.59 10.03–17.15 9.07–18.11 | 26.93 19.44–34.42 17.39–36.47 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 5.95–11.83 5.12–12.66 | 8.96 6.28–11.64 5.54–12.38 | 17.85 12.23–23.47 10.66–25.04 | 45% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.40–6.17 1.86–6.71 | 4.10 2.44–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 8.38 4.85–11.92 3.81–12.95 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.78 2.78–8.36 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.27–7.34 | 10.38 6.16–14.59 5.06–15.70 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 49.05 42.26–55.84 40.59–57.51 | 51.09 44.31–57.88 42.63–59.55 | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 478 411–546 393–564 | 483 416–549 399–567 | 961 827–1095 792–1130 | 48% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.44 67.41–75.47 66.12–76.76 | 76.86 72.54–81.19 71.23–82.50 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 9.83 6.99–12.67 6.23–13.42 | 10.92 7.98–13.87 7.23–14.62 | 20.75 14.97–26.53 13.47–28.04 | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.17 | 1.46 0.37–2.56 0.08–2.84 | 3.17 0.91–5.42 0.32–6.01 | 43% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.96–3.06 0.69–3.32 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 4.10 1.92–6.28 1.36–6.84 | 38% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.93–4.80 1.54–5.19 | 2.97 1.41–4.53 0.99–4.95 | 6.34 3.35–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+