Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.302.99safe0.72–2.650.45–2.161.16–4.81safer0.46–2.900.22–2.390.68–5.29
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.199.89safe3.84–7.572.45–5.936.29–13.50safer3.35–8.051.98–6.405.33–14.45
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0611.3027.37safe12.14–19.997.74–14.8719.88–34.86safer11.05–21.086.78–15.8317.83–36.91
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.858.0218.87safe7.91–13.795.34–10.7013.25–24.50safer7.08–14.624.60–11.4411.68–26.06
Blocked shots
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.013.988.99safe3.13–6.892.33–5.635.45–12.52safer2.58–7.431.83–6.124.42–13.56
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.184.3410.53safe3.97–8.402.34–6.346.31–14.74safer3.40–8.971.81–6.885.21–15.85
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction53.3046.75safe46.51–60.0939.96–53.53safer44.84–61.7638.29–55.20
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction511453964safe444–578387–520830–1098safer425–596369–537795–1133
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction75.4772.54safe71.44–79.5068.22–76.87safer70.15–80.8066.91–78.18
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6210.4521.07safe7.78–13.467.51–13.4015.29–26.85safer7.02–14.216.76–14.1513.78–28.36
Offsides
38%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.603.20safe0.44–2.760.51–2.700.95–5.45safer0.13–3.060.22–2.990.36–6.04
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.203.79safe0.54–2.641.08–3.331.61–5.97safer0.27–2.900.78–3.621.06–6.53
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
26%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.956.76safe1.38–4.252.39–5.503.77–9.75safer0.99–4.641.97–5.932.96–10.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.72–2.65 0.46–2.90 | 1.30 0.45–2.16 0.22–2.39 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.70 3.84–7.57 3.35–8.05 | 4.19 2.45–5.93 1.98–6.40 | 9.89 6.29–13.50 5.33–14.45 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.06 12.14–19.99 11.05–21.08 | 11.30 7.74–14.87 6.78–15.83 | 27.37 19.88–34.86 17.83–36.91 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.85 7.91–13.79 7.08–14.62 | 8.02 5.34–10.70 4.60–11.44 | 18.87 13.25–24.50 11.68–26.06 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 5.01 3.13–6.89 2.58–7.43 | 3.98 2.33–5.63 1.83–6.12 | 8.99 5.45–12.52 4.42–13.56 | 57% 30% |
| Corners | 6.18 3.97–8.40 3.40–8.97 | 4.34 2.34–6.34 1.81–6.88 | 10.53 6.31–14.74 5.21–15.85 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 53.30 46.51–60.09 44.84–61.76 | 46.75 39.96–53.53 38.29–55.20 | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 511 444–578 425–596 | 453 387–520 369–537 | 964 830–1098 795–1133 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.47 71.44–79.50 70.15–80.80 | 72.54 68.22–76.87 66.91–78.18 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 10.62 7.78–13.46 7.02–14.21 | 10.45 7.51–13.40 6.76–14.15 | 21.07 15.29–26.85 13.78–28.36 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.13–3.06 | 1.60 0.51–2.70 0.22–2.99 | 3.20 0.95–5.45 0.36–6.04 | 38% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.27–2.90 | 2.20 1.08–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 3.79 1.61–5.97 1.06–6.53 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 3.95 2.39–5.50 1.97–5.93 | 6.76 3.77–9.75 2.96–10.56 | 26% 14% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+