Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.082.53safe0.49–2.420.22–1.930.71–4.36safer0.24–2.680.00–2.160.23–4.84
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.938.47safe2.68–6.402.18–5.674.86–12.07safer2.19–6.891.72–6.143.91–13.03
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3611.9926.35safe10.43–18.288.43–15.5618.86–33.84safer9.34–19.377.47–16.5216.81–35.89
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction9.008.4217.42safe6.05–11.945.74–11.1111.80–23.04safer5.22–12.775.01–11.8410.23–24.61
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.153.457.60safe2.27–6.031.80–5.114.07–11.14safer1.72–6.581.31–5.603.03–12.17
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.8310.53safe3.48–7.912.83–6.836.32–14.74safer2.91–8.482.30–7.375.21–15.85
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.9046.59safe46.11–59.6939.81–53.38safer44.44–61.3638.13–55.05
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction450386836safe383–517320–453702–970safer365–535302–470667–1005
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction69.2768.03safe65.24–73.3063.70–72.35safer63.95–74.5962.39–73.66
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5912.4124.99safe9.75–15.429.46–15.3519.21–30.77safer8.99–16.188.71–16.1017.70–32.28
Offsides
21%
20%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.312.293.60safe0.15–2.471.20–3.391.34–5.85safer0.00–2.770.91–3.670.75–6.44
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.304.05safe0.69–2.791.17–3.431.87–6.22safer0.43–3.060.88–3.721.31–6.78
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.562.975.53safe1.12–4.001.41–4.522.53–8.52safer0.74–4.380.99–4.951.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.42 0.24–2.68 | 1.08 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.53 0.71–4.36 0.23–4.84 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.40 2.19–6.89 | 3.93 2.18–5.67 1.72–6.14 | 8.47 4.86–12.07 3.91–13.03 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.36 10.43–18.28 9.34–19.37 | 11.99 8.43–15.56 7.47–16.52 | 26.35 18.86–33.84 16.81–35.89 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.00 6.05–11.94 5.22–12.77 | 8.42 5.74–11.11 5.01–11.84 | 17.42 11.80–23.04 10.23–24.61 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.27–6.03 1.72–6.58 | 3.45 1.80–5.11 1.31–5.60 | 7.60 4.07–11.14 3.03–12.17 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.48–7.91 2.91–8.48 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.30–7.37 | 10.53 6.32–14.74 5.21–15.85 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 52.90 46.11–59.69 44.44–61.36 | 46.59 39.81–53.38 38.13–55.05 | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 450 383–517 365–535 | 386 320–453 302–470 | 836 702–970 667–1005 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.27 65.24–73.30 63.95–74.59 | 68.03 63.70–72.35 62.39–73.66 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 12.59 9.75–15.42 8.99–16.18 | 12.41 9.46–15.35 8.71–16.10 | 24.99 19.21–30.77 17.70–32.28 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.77 | 2.29 1.20–3.39 0.91–3.67 | 3.60 1.34–5.85 0.75–6.44 | 21% 20% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.43–3.06 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.05 1.87–6.22 1.31–6.78 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.56 1.12–4.00 0.74–4.38 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.99–4.95 | 5.53 2.53–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+