Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.262.46safe0.23–2.170.40–2.110.63–4.28safer0.00–2.420.18–2.340.15–4.76
Shots on target
45%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.777.68safe2.04–5.772.03–5.514.07–11.28safer1.55–6.261.56–5.983.12–12.24
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8312.0624.89safe8.90–16.758.50–15.6217.40–32.38safer7.81–17.857.54–16.5815.35–34.43
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.747.7516.49safe5.80–11.685.07–10.4310.87–22.12safer4.97–12.514.33–11.179.30–23.68
Blocked shots
52%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.043.377.41safe2.16–5.931.71–5.023.88–10.95safer1.62–6.471.22–5.512.84–11.98
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.134.9810.10safe2.91–7.342.98–6.985.89–14.32safer2.34–7.912.45–7.514.78–15.43
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.5752.22safe41.78–55.3645.44–59.01safer40.11–57.0343.77–60.68
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction406420826safe338–473354–487692–959safer320–491336–504656–995
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction66.7169.55safe62.69–70.7465.22–73.87safer61.39–72.0463.91–75.18
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1412.7124.85safe9.30–14.989.76–15.6519.06–30.63safer8.54–15.739.01–16.4017.56–32.13
Offsides
57%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.303.48safe1.02–3.340.21–2.391.23–5.74safer0.72–3.640.00–2.680.64–6.33
Yellow cards
35%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.963.72safe0.71–2.810.84–3.091.54–5.90safer0.44–3.070.54–3.380.99–6.46
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.685.16safe1.05–3.921.12–4.232.17–8.15safer0.66–4.310.69–4.661.36–8.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.18–2.34 | 2.46 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 3.91 2.04–5.77 1.55–6.26 | 3.77 2.03–5.51 1.56–5.98 | 7.68 4.07–11.28 3.12–12.24 | 45% 15% 41% |
| Total shots | 12.83 8.90–16.75 7.81–17.85 | 12.06 8.50–15.62 7.54–16.58 | 24.89 17.40–32.38 15.35–34.43 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.74 5.80–11.68 4.97–12.51 | 7.75 5.07–10.43 4.33–11.17 | 16.49 10.87–22.12 9.30–23.68 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 2.16–5.93 1.62–6.47 | 3.37 1.71–5.02 1.22–5.51 | 7.41 3.88–10.95 2.84–11.98 | 52% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.91–7.34 2.34–7.91 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.45–7.51 | 10.10 5.89–14.32 4.78–15.43 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 48.57 41.78–55.36 40.11–57.03 | 52.22 45.44–59.01 43.77–60.68 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 406 338–473 320–491 | 420 354–487 336–504 | 826 692–959 656–995 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.71 62.69–70.74 61.39–72.04 | 69.55 65.22–73.87 63.91–75.18 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 12.14 9.30–14.98 8.54–15.73 | 12.71 9.76–15.65 9.01–16.40 | 24.85 19.06–30.63 17.56–32.13 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.72–3.64 | 1.30 0.21–2.39 0.00–2.68 | 3.48 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.33 | 57% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.07 | 1.96 0.84–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.72 1.54–5.90 0.99–6.46 | 35% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.05–3.92 0.66–4.31 | 2.68 1.12–4.23 0.69–4.66 | 5.16 2.17–8.15 1.36–8.96 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+