Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
19%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.331.213.54safe1.36–3.300.35–2.061.72–5.36safer1.11–3.550.12–2.291.24–5.84
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.303.9410.24safe4.43–8.162.20–5.686.63–13.84safer3.94–8.651.73–6.155.68–14.80
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction16.909.8826.78safe12.98–20.836.31–13.4419.29–34.27safer11.89–21.925.35–14.4017.24–36.32
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction11.637.0418.67safe8.69–14.574.36–9.7213.05–24.29safer7.86–15.403.62–10.4611.48–25.86
Blocked shots
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.752.457.20safe2.87–6.630.80–4.113.67–10.74safer2.32–7.170.31–4.602.63–11.77
Corners
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.333.569.89safe4.12–8.551.55–5.565.67–14.10safer3.55–9.121.02–6.094.57–15.21
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction57.7241.37safe50.93–64.5134.58–48.15safer49.26–66.1832.91–49.82
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction572401973safe504–639335–468839–1106safer486–657317–485803–1142
Pass accuracy %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction79.3376.54safe75.30–83.3672.22–80.87safer74.01–84.6570.91–82.18
Fouls
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0712.3922.46safe7.23–12.909.45–15.3316.67–28.24safer6.47–13.668.70–16.0815.17–29.74
Offsides
27%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.764.71safe0.78–3.101.67–3.852.45–6.96safer0.48–3.411.38–4.141.86–7.55
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.283.89safe0.57–2.671.15–3.401.72–6.07safer0.30–2.930.86–3.701.16–6.63
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.766.42safe1.22–4.102.20–5.313.43–9.41safer0.84–4.481.78–5.742.61–10.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.33 1.36–3.30 1.11–3.55 | 1.21 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 3.54 1.72–5.36 1.24–5.84 | 62% 19% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.30 4.43–8.16 3.94–8.65 | 3.94 2.20–5.68 1.73–6.15 | 10.24 6.63–13.84 5.68–14.80 | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 16.90 12.98–20.83 11.89–21.92 | 9.88 6.31–13.44 5.35–14.40 | 26.78 19.29–34.27 17.24–36.32 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 11.63 8.69–14.57 7.86–15.40 | 7.04 4.36–9.72 3.62–10.46 | 18.67 13.05–24.29 11.48–25.86 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 2.87–6.63 2.32–7.17 | 2.45 0.80–4.11 0.31–4.60 | 7.20 3.67–10.74 2.63–11.77 | 75% 14% |
| Corners | 6.33 4.12–8.55 3.55–9.12 | 3.56 1.55–5.56 1.02–6.09 | 9.89 5.67–14.10 4.57–15.21 | 77% 15% |
| Possession % | 57.72 50.93–64.51 49.26–66.18 | 41.37 34.58–48.15 32.91–49.82 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 572 504–639 486–657 | 401 335–468 317–485 | 973 839–1106 803–1142 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.33 75.30–83.36 74.01–84.65 | 76.54 72.22–80.87 70.91–82.18 | — | 62% 34% |
| Fouls | 10.07 7.23–12.90 6.47–13.66 | 12.39 9.45–15.33 8.70–16.08 | 22.46 16.67–28.24 15.17–29.74 | 27% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.41 | 2.76 1.67–3.85 1.38–4.14 | 4.71 2.45–6.96 1.86–7.55 | 27% 18% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 2.28 1.15–3.40 0.86–3.70 | 3.89 1.72–6.07 1.16–6.63 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.10 0.84–4.48 | 3.76 2.20–5.31 1.78–5.74 | 6.42 3.43–9.41 2.61–10.22 | 26% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+