Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.933.34safe0.44–2.381.08–2.791.52–5.16safer0.19–2.630.85–3.011.04–5.64
Shots on target
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.425.8210.24safe2.55–6.284.08–7.566.63–13.84safer2.06–6.773.61–8.035.68–14.80
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2514.3427.59safe9.33–17.1810.77–17.9020.10–35.08safer8.24–18.279.81–18.8618.05–37.13
Shots in box
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction8.7410.7019.44safe5.80–11.688.02–13.3813.82–25.06safer4.97–12.517.28–14.1212.25–26.63
Blocked shots
33%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.444.107.53safe1.55–5.322.44–5.754.00–11.07safer1.01–5.861.95–6.242.96–12.10
Corners
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.515.429.93safe2.30–6.723.42–7.425.72–14.15safer1.72–7.302.89–7.964.61–15.25
Possession %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction43.2256.73safe36.43–50.0149.95–63.52safer34.76–51.6848.28–65.19
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction400556956safe332–467490–623822–1090safer314–485472–640787–1125
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction74.1181.58safe70.08–78.1377.26–85.91safer68.78–79.4375.95–87.22
Fouls
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction12.009.9621.96safe9.16–14.847.02–12.9116.18–27.74safer8.41–15.596.27–13.6514.67–29.25
Offsides
58%
18%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.731.774.50safe1.57–3.890.68–2.872.24–6.75safer1.26–4.190.39–3.151.66–7.34
Yellow cards
53%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.361.704.06safe1.31–3.410.57–2.831.88–6.24safer1.04–3.670.28–3.121.33–6.80
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
53%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.502.826.32safe2.06–4.941.26–4.383.33–9.31safer1.68–5.320.84–4.802.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.93 1.08–2.79 0.85–3.01 | 3.34 1.52–5.16 1.04–5.64 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.55–6.28 2.06–6.77 | 5.82 4.08–7.56 3.61–8.03 | 10.24 6.63–13.84 5.68–14.80 | 27% 61% |
| Total shots | 13.25 9.33–17.18 8.24–18.27 | 14.34 10.77–17.90 9.81–18.86 | 27.59 20.10–35.08 18.05–37.13 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 8.74 5.80–11.68 4.97–12.51 | 10.70 8.02–13.38 7.28–14.12 | 19.44 13.82–25.06 12.25–26.63 | 29% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.44 1.55–5.32 1.01–5.86 | 4.10 2.44–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 7.53 4.00–11.07 2.96–12.10 | 33% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.30–6.72 1.72–7.30 | 5.42 3.42–7.42 2.89–7.96 | 9.93 5.72–14.15 4.61–15.25 | 33% 55% |
| Possession % | 43.22 36.43–50.01 34.76–51.68 | 56.73 49.95–63.52 48.28–65.19 | — | 20% 77% |
| Passes | 400 332–467 314–485 | 556 490–623 472–640 | 956 822–1090 787–1125 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.11 70.08–78.13 68.78–79.43 | 81.58 77.26–85.91 75.95–87.22 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 12.00 9.16–14.84 8.41–15.59 | 9.96 7.02–12.91 6.27–13.65 | 21.96 16.18–27.74 14.67–29.25 | 63% 29% |
| Offsides | 2.73 1.57–3.89 1.26–4.19 | 1.77 0.68–2.87 0.39–3.15 | 4.50 2.24–6.75 1.66–7.34 | 58% 18% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 1.31–3.41 1.04–3.67 | 1.70 0.57–2.83 0.28–3.12 | 4.06 1.88–6.24 1.33–6.80 | 53% 20% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.50 2.06–4.94 1.68–5.32 | 2.82 1.26–4.38 0.84–4.80 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.51–10.12 | 53% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.