Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.232.88safe0.68–2.610.38–2.081.05–4.70safer0.43–2.870.15–2.310.57–5.18
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.433.989.41safe3.57–7.292.24–5.725.81–13.02safer3.08–7.781.77–6.194.85–13.97
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0511.6427.69safe12.13–19.988.07–15.2020.20–35.17safer11.03–21.077.12–16.1618.15–37.23
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.478.2618.73safe7.53–13.415.58–10.9413.11–24.35safer6.70–14.244.84–11.6811.54–25.92
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.067.89safe2.94–6.701.41–4.724.35–11.42safer2.39–7.250.92–5.213.31–12.46
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.184.5010.68safe3.97–8.392.50–6.506.47–14.89safer3.39–8.971.97–7.035.36–16.00
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction56.7842.50safe49.99–63.5735.72–49.29safer48.32–65.2434.05–50.96
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction521378899safe454–589311–444765–1033safer436–607294–462730–1068
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction75.6070.35safe71.57–79.6366.03–74.67safer70.28–80.9264.72–75.98
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1612.2523.41safe8.32–14.009.31–15.2017.63–29.20safer7.57–14.758.56–15.9516.13–30.70
Offsides
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.083.49safe0.25–2.570.99–3.171.23–5.74safer0.00–2.870.70–3.460.64–6.33
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.173.92safe0.69–2.791.04–3.301.74–6.09safer0.43–3.060.75–3.591.18–6.65
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.666.32safe1.23–4.102.11–5.223.33–9.32safer0.84–4.491.68–5.642.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 1.23 0.38–2.08 0.15–2.31 | 2.88 1.05–4.70 0.57–5.18 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.43 3.57–7.29 3.08–7.78 | 3.98 2.24–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 9.41 5.81–13.02 4.85–13.97 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.05 12.13–19.98 11.03–21.07 | 11.64 8.07–15.20 7.12–16.16 | 27.69 20.20–35.17 18.15–37.23 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.47 7.53–13.41 6.70–14.24 | 8.26 5.58–10.94 4.84–11.68 | 18.73 13.11–24.35 11.54–25.92 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.82 2.94–6.70 2.39–7.25 | 3.06 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 7.89 4.35–11.42 3.31–12.46 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 6.18 3.97–8.39 3.39–8.97 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.97–7.03 | 10.68 6.47–14.89 5.36–16.00 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 56.78 49.99–63.57 48.32–65.24 | 42.50 35.72–49.29 34.05–50.96 | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 521 454–589 436–607 | 378 311–444 294–462 | 899 765–1033 730–1068 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.60 71.57–79.63 70.28–80.92 | 70.35 66.03–74.67 64.72–75.98 | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 11.16 8.32–14.00 7.57–14.75 | 12.25 9.31–15.20 8.56–15.95 | 23.41 17.63–29.20 16.13–30.70 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.25–2.57 0.00–2.87 | 2.08 0.99–3.17 0.70–3.46 | 3.49 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.33 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.43–3.06 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 3.92 1.74–6.09 1.18–6.65 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 3.66 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.64 | 6.32 3.33–9.32 2.52–10.13 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+