Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.382.85safe0.50–2.440.53–2.241.03–4.67safer0.25–2.690.30–2.470.55–5.15
Shots on target
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.569.00safe2.58–6.302.82–6.305.39–12.60safer2.09–6.792.35–6.774.44–13.56
Total shots
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0313.0527.09safe10.11–17.969.49–16.6119.60–34.57safer9.02–19.058.53–17.5717.55–36.62
Shots in box
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.719.6119.32safe6.77–12.656.93–12.2913.70–24.94safer5.94–13.486.19–13.0312.13–26.51
Blocked shots
38%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.964.298.26safe2.08–5.842.64–5.954.72–11.79safer1.54–6.392.15–6.443.68–12.83
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.9910.35safe3.15–7.582.99–6.996.14–14.57safer2.58–8.152.45–7.525.03–15.67
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.0255.12safe39.23–52.8148.33–61.90safer37.56–54.4846.66–63.57
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction421521942safe354–488455–587809–1076safer336–507437–605773–1112
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction67.9978.34safe63.96–72.0274.02–82.67safer62.67–73.3272.71–83.98
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8311.3723.21safe8.99–14.678.43–14.3217.42–28.99safer8.24–15.427.68–15.0715.92–30.49
Offsides
52%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.433.49safe0.90–3.220.33–2.521.23–5.74safer0.60–3.520.04–2.810.64–6.33
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.143.79safe0.60–2.701.01–3.271.61–5.97safer0.34–2.970.72–3.561.05–6.52
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
44%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.976.06safe1.65–4.521.41–4.533.06–9.05safer1.26–4.910.99–4.952.25–9.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.38 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.47 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.30 2.09–6.79 | 4.56 2.82–6.30 2.35–6.77 | 9.00 5.39–12.60 4.44–13.56 | 42% 13% 45% |
| Total shots | 14.03 10.11–17.96 9.02–19.05 | 13.05 9.49–16.61 8.53–17.57 | 27.09 19.60–34.57 17.55–36.62 | 54% 39% |
| Shots in box | 9.71 6.77–12.65 5.94–13.48 | 9.61 6.93–12.29 6.19–13.03 | 19.32 13.70–24.94 12.13–26.51 | 46% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.08–5.84 1.54–6.39 | 4.29 2.64–5.95 2.15–6.44 | 8.26 4.72–11.79 3.68–12.83 | 38% 14% 47% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.15–7.58 2.58–8.15 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.45–7.52 | 10.35 6.14–14.57 5.03–15.67 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 46.02 39.23–52.81 37.56–54.48 | 55.12 48.33–61.90 46.66–63.57 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 421 354–488 336–507 | 521 455–587 437–605 | 942 809–1076 773–1112 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.99 63.96–72.02 62.67–73.32 | 78.34 74.02–82.67 72.71–83.98 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 11.83 8.99–14.67 8.24–15.42 | 11.37 8.43–14.32 7.68–15.07 | 23.21 17.42–28.99 15.92–30.49 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.52 | 1.43 0.33–2.52 0.04–2.81 | 3.49 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.33 | 52% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.34–2.97 | 2.14 1.01–3.27 0.72–3.56 | 3.79 1.61–5.97 1.05–6.52 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 2.97 1.41–4.53 0.99–4.95 | 6.06 3.06–9.05 2.25–9.86 | 44% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.