Premier League·Regular Season - 10·
Premier League·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.522.74safe0.25–2.190.66–2.370.91–4.56safer0.00–2.440.43–2.600.43–5.04
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.974.998.96safe2.10–5.833.25–6.745.36–12.57safer1.61–6.322.79–7.204.40–13.52
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8314.4126.24safe7.91–15.7610.84–17.9718.75–33.73safer6.82–16.859.89–18.9316.70–35.78
Shots in box
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction7.549.7617.30safe4.60–10.487.08–12.4411.68–22.92safer3.77–11.316.34–13.1810.11–24.49
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.424.297.70safe1.53–5.302.63–5.944.17–11.24safer0.99–5.842.14–6.433.13–12.27
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.095.1210.21safe2.88–7.313.12–7.126.00–14.43safer2.31–7.882.59–7.664.89–15.53
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction44.2356.56safe37.44–51.0249.78–63.34safer35.77–52.6948.10–65.02
Passes
16%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction408527935safe341–475461–594802–1069safer323–493443–611766–1105
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction65.9975.47safe61.96–70.0271.14–79.79safer60.67–71.3169.83–81.10
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1911.1221.31safe7.35–13.038.17–14.0615.53–27.09safer6.60–13.787.42–14.8114.02–28.59
Offsides
61%
18%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.531.443.97safe1.37–3.690.35–2.531.71–6.22safer1.07–3.990.06–2.821.13–6.81
Yellow cards
29%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.173.78safe0.56–2.661.04–3.301.60–5.96safer0.29–2.920.75–3.591.04–6.52
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.242.665.90safe1.80–4.671.10–4.222.91–8.89safer1.41–5.060.68–4.642.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.52 0.66–2.37 0.43–2.60 | 2.74 0.91–4.56 0.43–5.04 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.97 2.10–5.83 1.61–6.32 | 4.99 3.25–6.74 2.79–7.20 | 8.96 5.36–12.57 4.40–13.52 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.83 7.91–15.76 6.82–16.85 | 14.41 10.84–17.97 9.89–18.93 | 26.24 18.75–33.73 16.70–35.78 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 7.54 4.60–10.48 3.77–11.31 | 9.76 7.08–12.44 6.34–13.18 | 17.30 11.68–22.92 10.11–24.49 | 26% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.53–5.30 0.99–5.84 | 4.29 2.63–5.94 2.14–6.43 | 7.70 4.17–11.24 3.13–12.27 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.88–7.31 2.31–7.88 | 5.12 3.12–7.12 2.59–7.66 | 10.21 6.00–14.43 4.89–15.53 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 44.23 37.44–51.02 35.77–52.69 | 56.56 49.78–63.34 48.10–65.02 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 408 341–475 323–493 | 527 461–594 443–611 | 935 802–1069 766–1105 | 16% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.99 61.96–70.02 60.67–71.31 | 75.47 71.14–79.79 69.83–81.10 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.19 7.35–13.03 6.60–13.78 | 11.12 8.17–14.06 7.42–14.81 | 21.31 15.53–27.09 14.02–28.59 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.53 1.37–3.69 1.07–3.99 | 1.44 0.35–2.53 0.06–2.82 | 3.97 1.71–6.22 1.13–6.81 | 61% 18% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.29–2.92 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.52 | 29% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.24 1.80–4.67 1.41–5.06 | 2.66 1.10–4.22 0.68–4.64 | 5.90 2.91–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+