Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.032.78safe0.78–2.720.17–1.880.96–4.60safer0.53–2.970.00–2.110.48–5.08
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.623.539.16safe3.76–7.491.79–5.275.55–12.76safer3.27–7.981.32–5.744.60–13.72
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.769.9026.66safe12.83–20.686.34–13.4619.17–34.15safer11.74–21.775.38–14.4217.12–36.20
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.906.9517.84safe7.95–13.844.26–9.6312.22–23.47safer7.13–14.673.53–10.3610.65–25.03
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.822.897.71safe2.94–6.701.24–4.544.17–11.25safer2.40–7.250.74–5.033.14–12.28
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.283.9710.25safe4.07–8.491.97–5.976.04–14.47safer3.49–9.071.44–6.514.93–15.57
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction56.4242.99safe49.63–63.2136.21–49.78safer47.96–64.8834.53–51.45
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction523382905safe456–591315–448772–1039safer438–609298–466736–1075
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction73.1269.49safe69.09–77.1565.17–73.82safer67.80–78.4463.86–75.13
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6810.9621.64safe7.84–13.518.02–13.9115.86–27.42safer7.08–14.277.27–14.6614.35–28.93
Offsides
18%
18%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.312.573.88safe0.15–2.471.48–3.671.63–6.13safer0.00–2.771.19–3.951.04–6.72
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.763.19safe0.39–2.490.63–2.891.02–5.37safer0.12–2.750.34–3.180.46–5.93
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.14safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.856.21safe0.93–3.802.29–5.413.22–9.21safer0.54–4.191.87–5.832.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.72 0.53–2.97 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 54% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.62 3.76–7.49 3.27–7.98 | 3.53 1.79–5.27 1.32–5.74 | 9.16 5.55–12.76 4.60–13.72 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.76 12.83–20.68 11.74–21.77 | 9.90 6.34–13.46 5.38–14.42 | 26.66 19.17–34.15 17.12–36.20 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 10.90 7.95–13.84 7.13–14.67 | 6.95 4.26–9.63 3.53–10.36 | 17.84 12.22–23.47 10.65–25.03 | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.82 2.94–6.70 2.40–7.25 | 2.89 1.24–4.54 0.74–5.03 | 7.71 4.17–11.25 3.14–12.28 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.28 4.07–8.49 3.49–9.07 | 3.97 1.97–5.97 1.44–6.51 | 10.25 6.04–14.47 4.93–15.57 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 56.42 49.63–63.21 47.96–64.88 | 42.99 36.21–49.78 34.53–51.45 | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 523 456–591 438–609 | 382 315–448 298–466 | 905 772–1039 736–1075 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.12 69.09–77.15 67.80–78.44 | 69.49 65.17–73.82 63.86–75.13 | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 10.68 7.84–13.51 7.08–14.27 | 10.96 8.02–13.91 7.27–14.66 | 21.64 15.86–27.42 14.35–28.93 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.77 | 2.57 1.48–3.67 1.19–3.95 | 3.88 1.63–6.13 1.04–6.72 | 18% 18% 65% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.12–2.75 | 1.76 0.63–2.89 0.34–3.18 | 3.19 1.02–5.37 0.46–5.93 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.93–3.80 0.54–4.19 | 3.85 2.29–5.41 1.87–5.83 | 6.21 3.22–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.